Kremlin on Tape: The Ushakov–Dmitriev–Witkoff Leak That Blows Open a Hidden War for Power

The leaked conversations between Yuri Ushakov, Kirill Dmitriev, and Donald Trump associate Steve Witkoff are not a curiosity from Moscow’s backrooms. They reveal how informal actors have begun to shape the diplomatic arena around the war in Ukraine — and how far major-power decision-making may already be operating beyond official frameworks.

Five most likely scenarios:

1. Curtailment of informal initiatives

The scandal has damaged trust at the interstate level and inside the negotiating channels alike.
Ukraine reiterates: “No decisions without Kyiv.”
Informal contacts are halted.
Witkoff is likely to be removed from any further involvement in the process.

2. Reformatting the negotiation architecture

To avoid additional reputational risk, the United States may formally appoint a new special representative — much as it once did with Kurt Volker. Dan Driscoll, a senior official from Vice President DiVince’s team, is already positioning himself for the role.
The negotiation team would be reshaped, and clear, official parameters would be established.
Ukraine would return to the centre of the process.

3. Russia weaponises the leaks

The Kremlin pushes a familiar narrative: “Even the United States wants a compromise, but Ukraine is blocking progress.”
This line is amplified through the UN system, selected media outlets, and so-called “neutral” states.
The aim is to pressure Ukraine’s partners and sow division inside the pro-Ukrainian coalition.

4. A domestic American scandal

Witkoff’s ties to Donald Trump turn the episode into campaign ammunition.
Congressional hearings are likely, and formal inquiries may trigger formal scrutiny from the State Department.
Ukraine risks being pulled into a political confrontation it neither controls nor benefits from.

5. Ukraine seizes the initiative

The scandal gives Kyiv a chance to reaffirm a fundamental principle: that peace initiatives cannot proceed without its involvement.
Kyiv can push to broaden the Peace Formula and anchor firm principles for future security guarantees.
This is a chance to regain control of the diplomatic agenda — but it requires deciding who will represent Ukraine in Washington. Sending Andriy Yermak, whose reception there is far from favourable, may not serve that goal.

But the main question that is on everyone’s mind now is: Whose game was it anyway?

1. Russian perspective

Disrupt negotiations, discredit the United States, and sow division among allies.
The goal: create the impression that “the West itself wants to negotiate.”

2. American perspective

Remove the toxic actor (Witkoff) and halt behind-the-scenes agreements.
Reboot the process by cleansing it of scandal and restoring formal channels.

Brief conclusion

• The old negotiation format is dead.

• A reformatting is underway: new figures (such as Driscoll) and new rules will dominate the negotiating track.

• Ukraine has a unique opportunity to become an initiator rather than merely a participant.

• But there is a downside: the end of the war may be further delayed.

P.S. Oleksii Stepura – When I first wrote that these so-called peace talks were a Russian special operation rather than a genuine plan, you had many questions. I hope it is now crystal clear.

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