Why 2026 could be a turning point for Russia: analysts say Putin’s war is a crisis
фото: facebook Г.Друзенко
Analysts and Western experts say that the situation for Russia in the war against Ukraine is deteriorating against the backdrop of economic problems, heavy losses of the army and a slowdown in the offensive of the occupation forces. In their opinion, 2026 could be the beginning of a turning point for Russian aggression and personally for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This is reported by The Guardian .
Rajan Menon, a professor of international relations at the City University of New York, noted that Russia is entering a period of increasing internal pressure due to a protracted war that has been going on for over 4 years.
According to the analyst, when Putin launched a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, the Kremlin did not expect such a long-lasting conflict.
“His war is dragging on. Worse, it is failing and threatening his rule,” said Rajan Menon.
Analysts note that even Russian pro-war bloggers are increasingly criticizing the Russian military leadership . Some of them claim Ukraine’s superiority on the front, while some commentators admit the possibility of Russia’s defeat.
According to the estimates given in the material, the losses of the Russian army could amount to about 1.3 million killed and wounded.
Analysts pay special attention to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory. The article notes that Ukrainian drones regularly attack targets more than 1,000 miles from the border.
Among the cities and sites mentioned in the publication:
- Moscow;
- Yekaterinburg;
- Chelyabinsk;
- Perm;
- Rostov-on-Don;
- Yaroslavl;
- Murmansk;
- ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga;
- oil refineries in Tuapse and Yaroslavl.
The author of the material claims that it was the Ukrainian drone attacks that forced the Kremlin to reduce the scale of the May 9 celebration in Moscow.
The article also discusses Russia’s economic difficulties. In particular, a labor shortage due to the needs of the army and defense industry has caused a shortage of personnel, problems for small businesses, and rising inflation.
According to the data provided in the article, Russia’s economic growth fell from 4.9% in 2024 to 1% in 2025. At the same time, in the first quarter of 2026, Russia’s GDP decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. Analysts also believe that Ukrainian drones have significantly changed the situation on the front. Due to the constant use of drones, Russian troops have difficulty with large-scale offensive operations and the concentration of equipment.
The material notes that in 2025, Russia received only 0.8% of Ukrainian territory at the cost of more than 400 thousand losses , including about 200 thousand deaths. Separately, the author draws attention to the development of Ukrainian technologies. These include FPV drones, fiber-optic drones, and models with artificial intelligence elements. According to estimates, drones are currently causing 70-80% of losses on the front.
“The signs of alarm inside the Kremlin are unmistakable,” Rajan Menon noted.
The author claims that Russia has tightened security measures around Putin, restricted his movement, and tightened control over the information space.
The article also mentions that the Russian authorities are restricting access to social networks and messengers, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube, and Telegram. In addition, the leader of the Communist Party of Russia, Gennady Zyuganov, as the author notes, has warned of the risks of internal destabilization following the example of 1917.
“The Victory Day parade was supposed to celebrate Russia’s military might. Instead, it may become a requiem for Putin’s military ambitions,” concluded Rajan Menon.
Recall that European countries are preparing for a protracted war between Russia and Ukraine amid a lack of progress in negotiations. Currently, neither side has a clear path to victory or a peaceful settlement.
The Russian Defense Ministry recently published a list of companies located in Europe that allegedly produce and supply drones to Ukraine. Such a move, the press service of the ministry claims, will lead to an escalation of the military-political situation on the European continent and the transformation of these countries into Ukraine’s strategic rear.
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