The Limits of Patriot: Why Some Ballistic Missiles Still Break Through

Russia still retains a significant stockpile of missiles and attack drones despite its latest overnight assault, according to Ukrainian officials. Kyiv warns that the enemy has not exhausted its strike capabilities, leaving the threat of further large-scale attacks high.

Unfortunately, my prediction came true—the next shelling was not long in coming. Moreover, it was with rockets, not “Shaheds.”

There aren’t enough Patriots here for this whole pack.

Last time, there were 28 ballistic missiles. This time there are about 29.

For simplicity, let’s assume a total of 50 ballistic missiles across two “portions” and 2-4 interceptor missiles per target.

That is, from 100 to 200 PAC-3 missiles just for operational response, not to mention the need to have a stockpile. And that’s just for Kyiv.

Let me remind you that, worldwide, up to 650 such missiles are produced per year.

There simply won’t be any more of them. Go to shelters. Unfortunately, it will fly.

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