Why Russia considers the Istanbul agreements as the only way to end the war: analysts’ explanation

Russia continues to insist that the Istanbul agreements are the only path to peace negotiations to end the war.

This was reported by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has recently stated several times that negotiations similar to those in Istanbul in 2022 are a “good way” to end the war.

“Lavrov’s recent statements praising the 2022 Istanbul talks suggest that the Kremlin has chosen Lavrov as the chief amplifier of the long-standing Russian narrative that the Istanbul talks are a necessary starting point for negotiations,” the ISW report said.

Analysts argue that agreements similar to those in Istanbul would paralyze Ukraine, as they would include a ban on joining NATO, receiving Western weapons, and limits on the size of the Ukrainian army.

In addition, the draft peace agreement called for granting Russia and China the status of guarantor states for Ukraine, thus allowing the Kremlin to veto Western military aid in the event of a violation of the agreement.

In contrast, the draft Istanbul agreements do not limit Russia’s military capabilities, making it possible to invade again on “much more favorable terms” than in 2022.

“The Kremlin likely understands that the 2022 Istanbul Framework Agreements are not promising for Kyiv, and therefore continues to use them in an attempt to portray Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while Moscow continues to delay good-faith peacemaking efforts,” the analysts concluded.

Lavrov previously stated that Moscow does not rule out the possibility of negotiations with Ukraine , but insists on its own demands.

Recall that during his meeting with Trump in Alaska, Putin suggested China as a country that could provide security guarantees for Ukraine. However, Ukraine does not consider China as a possible security guarantor after the end of the war with Russia.

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