Without fuel and spare parts: Ukrainian military strikes exacerbate fuel crisis in Russia

Ukrainian drones continue to carry out targeted strikes on Russia’s strategic energy infrastructure. According to The Wall Street Journal, such attacks have knocked out about 13% of Russian oil refinery capacity.

Losses in the fuel sector are also complicated for the Kremlin by Western sanctions – after 2022, Russia has actually lost access to high-quality equipment repairs and technological maintenance of oil refining infrastructure.

The decline in fuel production has already made itself felt – in a number of regions, in particular in the temporarily occupied Crimea and parts of Siberia, fuel sales at gas stations have begun to be restricted. Where gasoline is still available, it has become significantly more expensive: since the beginning of the year, wholesale prices for A-95 gasoline have increased by 45%, despite the general decline in world oil prices.

At the same time, due to disruptions in rail and air services caused by drone strikes, more and more Russians are switching to cars, which further increases demand — especially during the summer harvest season.

“These strikes do not have a direct impact on the front, but they significantly hit the economy. And the Russian economy is already operating at the limit, so even local losses create additional weaknesses,” says former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.

Over the past month, Ukraine has attacked more than a dozen oil refineries deep inside Russia. Experts say drones have become more powerful, have greater range, and are more accurate.

“Last year we saw attempts at such attacks, but now it’s a systematic approach. Strike, repair, new strike. And if Ukraine keeps up the pace, Russia simply won’t have time to restore everything,” said former Gazprom Neft advisor Serhiy Vakulenko.

Analysts are paying special attention to Ukrainian developments. In particular, the new Flamingo cruise missile could be crucial due to its larger warhead.

“This is no longer just a disruption of work. This is a threat of complete destruction of Russian industrial facilities,” explains Fabian Hofman, an expert on missile systems at the University of Oslo.

Although the fuel crisis is unlikely to directly affect the Kremlin’s strategic plans, continued pressure could have an effect in the long term.

“This is a war of resources. And Ukraine, like David, is looking for Goliath’s weaknesses,” emphasizes former Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

As a reminder, Russia’s economic growth is slowing, oil revenues are falling, the budget deficit has reached a three-decade high, and inflation and interest rates remain high . Some Russian financial insiders are warning of a possible debt crisis.

As reported, Panama is tightening its rules for registering commercial vessels, putting pressure on the Russian “shadow fleet” used to transport Russian oil to circumvent sanctions.

By the way, Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar stated that Ukraine’s attacks on the Russian Druzhba oil pipeline not only contradict the interests of Bratislava, but also harm Kyiv.

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