Trukhanov’s Shadow: Is Separatism Brewing Again in Odesa?

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Whether Hennadiy Trukhanov is still the mayor of Odesa or not no longer matters. From the standpoint of official Kyiv, his term is effectively over — and his attempts to remain “in business” now depend entirely on how much room Kyiv is willing to give him.

Of course, there will be no elections — yet the revocation of Trukhanov’s citizenship inevitably sparks talk of elections. And the Russian passport he reportedly showed to the SBU raises questions about separatism.

1. From the standpoint of popular legitimacy, Trukhanov has no real competitors. He remains politician number one, two, three — perhaps even five — in Odesa. The gap between him and any potential rival (who, de facto, does not yet exist) is enormous. Trukhanov has a loyal, adventurous electorate that largely votes for whoever he points to.

2. For at least the past year, Bankova has been trying to cultivate a rival to Trukhanov in the person of regional governor Kiper. The attempt has not been very successful, particularly from an electoral standpoint. Trukhanov himself has also tried to promote a “double” — a stand-in figure — but with little success. After all, a double is meant to appear only when the main actor cannot take the stage. Still, this is a development worth watching closely.

3. Can the new head of the VCA change the electoral landscape? Highly doubtful. Political “parachutists” rarely take root in Ukrainian cities — they succeed only during moments of intense political turbulence. Even Mikheil Saakashvili, despite his charisma and experience, couldn’t win Odesa’s lasting affection, though he did manage to build his own faction.

4. In the near future, Odesa will see no riots or open defiance. Such developments are postponed for a long time, and this is already evident in the reactions of key players. For the city’s business community, the main question now is how Lysak and Kiper will coexist. The most frequent complaints heard in Odesa concern how business processes have become significantly more complicated amid the confrontation between the mayor and the governor. The central fear, in fact, is another round of economic redistribution.

5. As for ordinary residents of Odesa, they are waiting. They are neither for nor against Trukhanov’s removal, especially given the manner in which it happened. “Voting with their heads, hearts, or feet” is something that has been postponed for far too long.

And finally, will these changes affect the level of separatism in the city? For now, not at all. Everything will depend primarily on the popularity — or unpopularity — of those who will govern Odesa next, as well as on broader developments across Ukraine.

As a reminder, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree on the deprivation of Ukrainian citizenship of Odessa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov. Earlier, the Commission under the President adopted a decision on the deprivation of Ukrainian citizenship of Odessa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov. After the president’s signature, his powers will automatically terminate, and the secretary of the city council, Ihor Koval, will begin to perform the duties of mayor.

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