Bread costs almost 40 hryvnias: prices for one of the most important products will rise rapidly in Ukraine

In Ukraine, prices for bread — both white and rye — will rise in the near future. The main reason is a shortage of rye due to a reduction in sown areas and a drop in yields, which has already led to a rapid increase in flour prices. Producers warn that the price increase could reach 20% by the end of the year.

This is stated in the material of “Unian” .

It is noted that according to domestic retail chains and analysts, prices for all types of bread will rise in the near future. In anticipation of a shortage of rye and an increase in the cost of flour, the estimated increase by the end of the year will be:

• Estimated average price increase of 5% for all varieties of bread.
• For rye bread, an increase of approximately 15–20% is expected.
• The increase in general prices for bread will be up to 20% in the second half of the year, when the harvest ends.

“Producers predict a 20% increase in the price of bread… due to the shortage of rye, the price of rye bread may increase by 15%,” the ATB network notes.

It is reported that the price of rye flour has already increased to 17-20 thousand hryvnias per ton — twice as much as a year ago. Rye prices have jumped from 6.5 thousand to 14-16 thousand hryvnias per ton.

The main reasons for the price increase:

1. Rye shortage. Due to the war, the rye harvest more than doubled — from 593 thousand tons in 2021 to 218 thousand tons in 2024. Ukrainian farmers sowed rye on only 60% of the pre-war area.
2. Imports, but expensive. Rye is no longer imported cheaper – mainly imports from Poland cost 16 thousand UAH/t, and Ukrainian – 14 thousand. This increases the cost of bread.
3. Farmers and flour mills market. Rye yields 1.5 times less than wheat, so it is beneficial mainly to processors, not farmers. State support is minimal.
4. Global trends and Ukrainian market loss. Although rye bread consumption is growing in Europe (Scandinavia, Canada, USA), the Ukrainian market is shrinking – many farmers are reorienting, and exports are falling.

It is noted that such changes may also affect consumers and markets. In particular, the assortment will be reduced, as traditional black bread is expected to disappear – it will be replaced by bread made from imported flour.

Tastes and quality may also change as producers try to reduce costs. However, a shortage of bread on the shelves is not predicted – it will be imported if necessary.

Journalists added that farmers may return to sowing rye due to high prices. So far, sowings have increased by only a few percent. For example, the Zhytomyr region has launched an information campaign to urge farmers to return rye to the rotation.

Let us remind you that the borscht index increased by 27% year-on-year, reaching UAH 196. This is UAH 26 cheaper than last month, when the cost of the dish was UAH 222.

By the way, in Ukraine, chicken prices have increased by 7 percent since the beginning of 2025. The price increase was caused by an increase in grain prices and bird flu in the EU.

It was previously reported that meat prices in Ukraine went up in May 2025. According to updated data, the cost of both pork and chicken increased in almost all categories.

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