Putin’s Paranoia: The Real Reason the War Drags On

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Putin resists ending the war because bringing troops home could destabilize his regime, Reuters reports. History suggests the Kremlin has good reason to fear the consequences.

Military personnel returning from local wars have often become the driving force behind coups: in 1980 in Turkey, in 1974 in Portugal, in 1952 in Egypt, in 1936 in Spain. Prigozhin’s mutiny belongs to the same tradition. It was stopped only because Prigozhin cared more about money than power. That is why the return of the army from the front poses a real threat to Putin’s regime.

In the totalitarian dictatorship built by Putin, where there are no democratic elections, a change of power is possible in only two ways: either through a coup or through the natural death of the ruler. Last week, we learned that Putin intends to live to the age of 150, with organ transplants and Botox injections to the ears. One hundred fifty years is about twelve presidential terms in Russia. In terms of eternity, not much.

This means that, of the two options, a military coup appears to be the most realistic way to change power in Russia. Every day of this war only increases the likelihood of such a scenario, as Reuters sources suggest.

Already, we see how Putin’s “heroes,” upon returning to Russia, continue to kill, rape, and maim — the same atrocities they committed in Ukraine. Their mass return not only escalates crime but also increases the risk to Putin’s own grip on power. Logically, it is safer for him to keep these “orcs” at war rather than near the Kremlin walls.

Any end to the war will raise many uncomfortable questions for Putin. Russia began it under the slogan of “struggle for sovereignty,” yet in reality, it has become globally dependent on China. Ten years ago, Senator John McCain called Russia “a gas station that only pretends to be a country.” Today, we can clarify: it is a Chinese gas station.

The question, “Is this what we fought for and died under — Ukrainian drones?” (assembled from Chinese components), may well become a trigger for the military returning home after the war. Then, a small spark could ignite a crisis — much like the social media ban in Nepal, which sparked an uprising — and the system that seemed strong yesterday could collapse as if it had never existed.

Putin is an ordinary military pensioner, obsessed with history and conspiracy theories. Given his character, he perceives the risk of a coup by his own “soldiers” as extremely high. In these circumstances, continuing the war is a simple guarantee of preserving both his power and his life.

That is why no “territorial exchanges” will make him stop. For Putin, NOT fighting is far more dangerous than fighting. The logic is simple: he will only stop where he is forced to stop. The only question is whether that will be near Kramatorsk, Lviv, Warsaw, or the English Channel.

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