Deadly crisis: How Ukraine’s Leadership Lost the War of Attrition

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Shortly after news broke of Trump’s planned meeting with Putin in Alaska, Gallup — a leading global authority on public opinion — released survey results revealing how Ukrainians view potential scenarios for ending the war.

According to the survey, 69% of respondents now believe the war with Russia should be ended as soon as possible through negotiations, while only 24% think the war should be fought to a victorious conclusion. Examining the trend over the years, the proportions of those favoring a swift peace through concessions and those supporting a fight to the finish have essentially reversed.

What does this signify?

The Overton window — the range of politically acceptable opinions shaped by public sentiment — now permits Zelenskyy to discuss only the concessions Ukraine might make to achieve peace, but not a strategy aimed at defeating Russia. Moreover, this window is likely to narrow further over time. Without a radical change, each passing month will see more Ukrainians willing to accept increasingly difficult compromises in the name of peace.

And a country unwilling to fight for victory offers little hope of winning the war.

How did a nation that stormed military registration and enlistment offices in 2022, ready to fight to the death, become, by 2025, a people who despise the CCC and are willing to negotiate an unjust peace with the aggressor?

The answer, in my view, is clear: the government deceived its people. Almost none of the powerful elite, nor their children or relatives, went to war. The economy remains unmobilized. Corruption thrives. The army is only half-reformed. Servicemen still have to purchase many essential items for the front line with their own or volunteer funds. Soldiers’ basic salaries remain below Ukraine’s official average wage.

This is despite Ukraine’s budget, which has more than doubled in dollar terms during the war, and the National Bank’s gold and foreign currency reserves, which are breaking historical records.

In short, by delaying radical reforms, the Ukrainian government lost the war of attrition. It is no shame to admit that Putin mobilized Russia for a prolonged conflict more effectively than Zelenskyy has for Ukraine. Moreover, Russia’s allies — though poorer than Ukraine — are better mobilized, better armed, and some are even willing to die for the Kremlin’s whims.

Could Ukraine have won this war? Yes, especially in 2022, after the Russian blitzkrieg failed and before the Russian government, economy, and society had fully mobilized for a prolonged conflict. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian government squandered that opportunity, missing the chance to cross into Russian territory and conduct deep raids behind enemy lines, attacking Russian forces from the east. The initial enthusiasm of Ukrainians also waned.

It soon became clear that on both sides of the front, commanders often resembled mental descendants of Zhukov, valuing nameless operations more than human lives. Corruption remains a contest with varying success against the Russians. Our allies seem to help no better than holding our hands to prevent an unexpected Ukrainian victory. Only decent but poor people are fighting for Ukraine. The vast majority of Ukrainians either cheer for the Armed Forces or live parallel peaceful lives, recalling the war only during enemy missile strikes at night.

According to Gallup, around late 2023 to early 2024, Ukrainians increasingly desired peace, not necessarily a just one, but a quick one. And that desire grows stronger: nearly 70% are now ready to accept difficult compromises with the “aggressor state.”

I struggle to understand how Zelenskyy intends to lead a long war with such public sentiment. Yet the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and his “5-6 effective managers” must bear primary responsibility for the transformation of society into what it has become.

Therefore, Volodymyr Oleksandrovych’s primary task at present is to end this war without causing Ukraine to suffer defeat. He is unable to carry out the necessary reforms. Without fundamental changes, victory over Russia is impossible. Furthermore, the longer the conflict continues, the less support it will have among Ukrainians, and accordingly, the faster the President will lose legitimacy and public trust.

This, incidentally, is a distinctly European pattern. After World War I, no European country — with the possible exception of Finland, which fought for several months but not years—was willing to sustain protracted wars on its soil. Yielding to a stronger enemy to preserve the nation became the predominant military strategy across Europe.

Thus, if Trump, following his meeting with Putin at the end of next week, proposes a ceasefire to Ukraine in exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region, I can only express sympathy for Volodymyr Oleksandrovych. At that point, he will face only unfavorable options.

Perhaps even despair will compel him to undertake the necessary radical reforms.

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