“Freeze” or war by 2028: which scenario is more realistic?

A ceasefire and fixation of the current front line look more realistic than a protracted conflict for many years. The Russian leadership may try to convince its own population of a “dead end” in order to exit the active phase of fighting.

This is how entrepreneur and blogger Karl Volokh commented on the options for ending military operations in Ukraine, which were previously voiced by the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation Kovalenko.

“The second forecast seems to me to be the most realistic. That is, a ceasefire and a freeze on the war,” the studio guest noted, adding that although the first scenario with a war by 2028 cannot be ruled out, it is the “freeze” that now looks the most likely.

Analyzing the scenario of a hybrid war against NATO by 2028, the blogger called it less likely, although he did not completely rule it out. In his opinion, the aggressor is considering the possibility of using the army abroad under the pretext of “protecting” Russian-speaking citizens in the Baltic states.

Volokh explained that today’s circumstances on the battlefield are favorable for Ukraine due to its technological advantage in defense. The occupiers are losing more people than they are recruiting through covert mobilization, which is gradually pushing the Kremlin to seek diplomatic ways out of the situation, he believes.

The day before, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalenko reported that the Kremlin is probably considering at least three scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine, including a freeze on hostilities. According to him, under one of the scenarios, the Russian Federation plans to continue the war at least until 2028. In particular, the enemy hopes for the success of this year’s spring-summer campaign.

At the same time, the Kremlin is actively building the psychological and informational foundation for a possible future war against NATO. At the same time , Russia is creating a network of “Trojan horses” , buying up real estate near military bases in NATO countries, to launch a coordinated sabotage campaign. The Kremlin has also intensified its propaganda campaign regarding the creation of the “Narva People’s Republic” , which may indicate that the Kremlin is preparing to attack Estonia.