Gasoline crisis in Russia: how fuel shortages affect the war

Russia is facing serious logistical problems due to fuel shortages, which are hampering internal communications within the country. Meanwhile, queues at gas stations are causing discontent among Russians, and a shortage of diesel fuel due to strikes on the oil refining industry is slowing the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine.

This opinion was expressed on the air of “Pryamoy” by the executive director of the Economic Discussion Club, Oleg Pendzin.

“There are several aspects of the problem that we have just discussed regarding Russia. The first problem: in reality, Russia is a huge country, and a significant segment of internal communication and logistics routes is provided by road transport. Road transport, especially in the Russian Federation, runs not on electricity, but on diesel. Accordingly, any problems with the supply of diesel fuel for heavy trucks significantly complicate the process of logistical connections. This is the first point,” Pendzin noted.

The second point, according to him, is that Russians themselves have already begun to show dissatisfaction with the lines at gas stations.

“The quality of life of any modern person is, in particular, traveling by own car or public transport, which is to one degree or another tied to gasoline. When we talk about the quality of life, when we see huge queues at Russian gas stations, this definitely does not characterize the improvement in the perception of the world around us by Russian citizens. Let’s call a spade a spade,” explains the economic expert.

At the same time, he emphasizes, diesel fuel is extremely important from the point of view of ensuring the offensive of Russian troops in Ukraine. “The less fuel there is, the more difficult it will be for the Russians to carry out aggression against our country. Therefore, when we talk about this segment, it is clearly important and makes any oil refineries a fair target for the Ukrainian armed forces,” Pendzin added.

“From 15 to 17 percent of Russian oil refining has been stopped by Ukrainian drones. Moreover, this situation affects not only drones. In Russia, oil transshipment complexes and oil pumping complexes have also begun to be targets of attack, which will definitely lead to a decrease in the possibility of exporting oil to the foreign market. I would like to remind you that oil today is, in fact, the only energy carrier that provides revenues to the Russian state budget, and as a result, financing the war. So any actions related to the forceful influence on oil refining, oil transshipment, and oil production definitely affect the Russian Federation’s revenues,” explains Oleg Pendzin.

As a reminder, the Russian government has extended a temporary ban on gasoline exports and imposed restrictions on other types of fuel. It will be in effect until December 31, 2025 inclusive and applies to all exporters, including direct producers. Previously, producers were prohibited from exporting gasoline until the end of September, and non-producers were prohibited from exporting gasoline until the end of October.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones have caused record damage to Russia’s oil refining industry , knocking out almost 38% of primary oil refining capacity. As of the end of September, plants with a total capacity of about 338 thousand tons per day were idle in the Russian Federation. This is the largest figure in the history of Russian oil refining. For comparison: in August 2023, the downtime level was 23% (206 thousand tons per day).

As “Pryamiy” reported, new rules for trading diesel fuel came into effect in Russia on September 23. Putin is trying to contain the rapid rise in fuel prices by introducing new restrictions for exchange participants and price controls. The shortage arose due to systematic attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian oil refineries.

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