Hybrid war with Estonia: what Putin is counting on

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Almost all of Putin’s resources are drawn to the Ukrainian front. The Russian president still dreams of destroying the neighboring state and annexing its territories to the Russian Federation. And the tactics chosen by the White House in negotiations with Moscow only inspire Putin. How can he also fight with Estonia?

But Putin may not have a real war with the neighboring Baltic country. In his attempt to destabilize Estonia and NATO, he may take a hybrid path – the same one he tried to use in Ukraine after the Revolution of Dignity. Then the Russian Federation invaded, occupied and annexed Crimea, and in the East of Ukraine it was in no hurry with the annexation, creating “people’s republics” there…

In the case of Estonia, he may follow the same path: send saboteurs to the neighboring country and announce the creation of the “Narva People’s Republic.”

The Kremlin’s entire calculation is based on the fact that the West will once again turn on the “deep concern” mode and pretend that the capture of Narva is an internal showdown in Estonia. If the US and the EU are afraid of a direct clash with a nuclear maniac, this will be the de facto end of the North Atlantic Alliance. After all, Putin does not need Estonian territories as such, his main goal is to destroy the reputation of the West.

The most interesting thing here is how the West will react. If the US tries to ignore Putin’s war against Estonia, if the EU says that a direct conflict with a nuclear country cannot be allowed, then Putin will have the opportunity to strengthen himself on the territory of a NATO member state. And we can talk about the slow death of the entire Alliance.

So, in the case of Estonia, Putin will not need Narva, but the political death of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, after which Putin and Xi Jinping will be able to confidently feel like winners in the war with the collective West and the leaders who pushed the United States far away from its post-war spheres of influence.

Bild previously reported that Russia has stepped up its propaganda campaign to create a separate republic in Estonia . It said that this development could indicate that the Kremlin is preparing to attack the country.

It is worth noting that Narva is a border city with a population of 50,000 people. About 90% of them are Russian-speaking. At the same time, according to Estonian intelligence, in 2025 the Russian Federation increased its ammunition production, which means preparations for a new offensive operation outside Ukraine.

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