Spring Is Coming, But So Is the Test: What Ukrainians Must Prepare For

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A brief update from the ground: the missile strike on Ukraine’s western regions on the night of February 17 failed to achieve any tangible results for the Russians, as Ukrainian air defenses performed at a high level.

The latest round of talks in Geneva also failed to produce any significant results. Medinsky, acting on Putin’s orders, apparently sought to torpedo the resolution of key issues. Progress on mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire regime has not addressed the most critical points.

There are 10 days left until the end of winter. As noted above, the February 17 shelling yielded no results for the Russians. This attack will certainly not be the last, but the Russians’ winter freezing campaign has failed. The Ukrainian rear has held firm.

As the situation moves into spring, the Russians are likely to pursue a military solution, organizing another offensive in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

At the same time, the situation on the front for the Russians is not going well. The Russian army, which is constantly trying to advance, is exhausted. The Ukrainian army is counterattacking in the south. Even the rather conservative Deep State acknowledges the successes of the Ukrainian army at the junction of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
These are not rose-colored glasses but simply optimistic spring theses, although there is still snow and frost outside.

Let us remind you that on the evening of February 17, the trilateral meeting of Ukraine, the United States, and Russia, held in Geneva, Switzerland, concluded. According to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, Rustem Umerov, the parties had a joint party and later continued their work in groups. The political and military groups worked on the negotiations. The first ended about half an hour earlier.

Subsequently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made several important statements in a new interview with Axios regarding troop withdrawals and the negotiation process. According to him, US President Donald Trump is pressuring Ukraine to make territorial concessions in the name of peace, which he described as ‘unfair.’

In addition, the head of state reported on progress in the military direction during the trilateral talks in the Ukraine-US-Russia format on ending the war. As Zelensky noted, all participants demonstrated a constructive position. In particular, this concerns mechanisms for monitoring a possible ceasefire.

In turn, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed the opinion that a quick end to the war through negotiations can hardly be expected. “This war will only end when one of the sides is exhausted—either militarily or economically,” Merz believes.

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