From Dubai to Kharkiv: A War That Could Reshape the World

Source: Author’s Facebook page

While Russia’s war against Ukraine continues with no clear end in sight, events in the Middle East are spiraling into what is quickly becoming the largest regional conflict of the 21st century.

A Ukrainian social media user posted two photos: suicide bombers hitting homes in Dubai and Kharkiv on the same day. He wrote that just a few days ago, no one could have imagined that suicide bombers would attack these two cities at the same time!

Indeed, when we think about the attacks on Iran, we must remember that we are talking about a country that has remained Russia’s most loyal ally all this time, supplied it with shaheeds in the first period of the war, and helped localize their production on Russian territory. In the hands of the murdered Ayatollah Khamenei is not only the blood of his own compatriots who fought against his brutal regime. And not only the blood of Israelis killed in Iranian attacks. But also the blood of Ukrainians.

Therefore, a quick defeat of the Iranian regime and a demonstration of Russia’s inability to help its next ally, after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad and Nicolas Maduro, are precisely in Ukraine’s interests. It’s another matter if the war drags on.

There will already be many negative consequences. The first is already visible on the economic plane: an increase in oil prices. For Americans, these translate into higher fuel prices—and, consequently, higher costs for everything—eroding their purchasing power. And for Putin, this is another opportunity to at least slightly patch up the “hole” in the Russian state budget. Therefore, the Russian president is keen for this new war to be long.
The second risk concerns weapons—particularly air defense systems. It seems that no one expected such a large-scale attack by Iran on the Persian Gulf countries. Yes, these attacks may be related to the desire to disable American military facilities in these states, but in reality, Tehran is attacking both hotels and civilian airfields.

This is also very similar to the Russian approach: if I lose the civilizational competition, I have to destroy the model of success and development of my neighbors. And it is obvious that if the Iranian regime survives, albeit weakened, there will be many contenders for air defense and anti-missile systems – and this is precisely when Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine.

The third risk is the further escalation of conflicts. Many may believe that the US and Israeli strike on Iran is in no way connected with the Russian-Ukrainian war and would have happened even if this war had not occurred. But behind these beliefs is a misunderstanding of how much Russia’s war against Ukraine has affected the atmosphere in the world and the willingness and ability to resolve conflicts diplomatically.

If we are talking about a total confrontation of “two worlds,” we must understand that when the situation reaches a deadlock on one front, there is a need to destroy the balance elsewhere.

And so on—until a global war. Or a war in which the number of local conflicts in terms of tension and consequences will approach the Third World War.

We cannot influence the timeframe of the war with Iran. But we can and must do everything possible to ensure that, in the context of such a large-scale conflict, Russia’s war against Ukraine does not end up on the periphery of political interest, the interest of politicians and the media.

We should remind ourselves of this war and its connection to the conflict in the Middle East, as did, for example, German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who emphasized that “Russia’s war against Ukraine is no less unjust than the crimes of the Iranian regime, and Moscow’s invasion of a peaceful neighboring country is just as unjustified as the terrorist war that Tehran has been waging against Israel for many years.”

This is exactly what we should all remember and talk about.

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