Mission Impossible: Why Putin Cannot Win in Ukraine

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Putin cannot win the war against the Ukrainians. Not because of a lack of resources, but because of the very goal he has set for himself: to eliminate Ukrainians as a separate nation.

Some are to be physically destroyed; others are to be forced to give up their identity for the sake of survival. This goal is evident from his statements and his actions. And this approach is not a feasible strategy.

In fact, Putin is trying to continue the mission of one of his inspirers, Stalin. He was also clearly aware that the existence of Ukrainians as a nation was a threat to the empire. But even Stalin failed to achieve this goal, despite much more favorable conditions: the majority of Ukrainians were already within the borders of his state, capable of mass terror. Most, but not all.

Some remained beyond his reach. And the attempt to “finish the job” in the territories annexed after 1939 encountered stubborn, long-lasting, and well-organized resistance. It was suppressed—but at the cost of exhaustion, which undermined the empire. It began to crack immediately after Stalin’s death. In the end, the memory of this resistance became one of the factors in its collapse.

Putin does not even have such opportunities. He does not control the territories where the majority of Ukrainians live. Therefore, he can implement his strategy only in the occupied lands—and he does. It is scary and painful for us, but it is not enough for him.

Moreover, the very threat of destruction mobilizes the majority of Ukrainians, awakening some of those who remained indifferent to their identity. It adds strength, consolidates society, and makes the plan’s implementation even less likely. This threat also destroys the tools of “soft power” that Russia successfully used for Russification for years before the war in 2014.

Therefore, Putin is losing today.

And he will ultimately lose precisely because his strategy is wrong, built on an unrealistic goal. And such strategies always lead to defeat. Perhaps not as quickly as we would like. But inevitably. And no changes in tactics (which are actually few) will change the outcome. So let’s hold on; let’s invest in the common cause of victory, and we will wait for the empire to collapse.

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