Playing with Fire: How Russia’s Air Defense Forces Turned Their Own Skies into a Trap for Civilian Aircraft

Recently, the Russian dictator complained about the lack of response from Ukraine’s Western partners following the Ukrainian president’s statements that Russia can no longer consider its airspace safe for civil aviation.

“Of course, this is a manifestation of state terrorism. And, of course, it complicates the possibility of holding bilateral peace negotiations,” he noted.

As a reminder, in early September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russian skies were becoming completely dangerous, and all airlines using Russian airspace should take this into account.

The very next day, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha announced that Ukraine had officially notified the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) that Russian airspace was dangerous to civil aviation due to increased military activity.

Speaking about the actual “closing of the skies” over Russia, it was primarily  implies that Russian territory will continue to be under attack by Ukrainian drones.

As of 2026, Ukraine possesses one of the most powerful and technologically advanced ecosystems of long-range drones in the world. Initially denied permission to use Western weapons on Russian territory, the country scaled up its own production of deep-strike UAVs. This allowed it to extend combat operations deep into enemy territory, paralyzing logistics, airbases, and oil and gas infrastructure.

 The entire European part of the Russian Federation, right up to the Urals and the Arctic, is under fire control. Domestic defense enterprises produce hundreds of long-range UAVs per day. There are plans to increase the launch capacity to 1,000 long-range UAVs per day.

Another important point is Article 51 of the UN Charter, which is a fundamental norm of international law and enshrines the inalienable right of a state to individual or collective self-defense in the event of an armed attack. 

This article provides the legal basis for Ukraine’s conduct of a defensive war against Russian aggression, and also legitimizes Ukraine’s right to launch retaliatory strikes against military targets on Russian territory.

I would like to draw attention to cases where the operation of Russian air defense systems created a danger to civil aviation in Russian airspace.

 Let me give two examples. 

An Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) passenger jet was shot down by a Russian air defense system. The crash of the Embraer 190, flying from Baku to Grozny, occurred in late December 2024.

The flight took place while Ukrainian long-range UAVs were attacking military facilities in the Grozny area.  A Russian Pantsir-S surface-to-air missile system fired missiles that exploded just meters from the passenger jet. The plane’s fuselage was shredded by shrapnel, and its navigation and communication systems were disabled by Russian electronic warfare.

Despite the critical damage, Russia prohibited the pilots from making an emergency landing in Grozny or any other nearby Russian airport. The plane was forced to fly across the Caspian Sea toward Kazakhstan. The aircraft managed to reach Kazakhstan but crashed during landing near the city of Aktau. Of the 67 people on board, 38 died, while another 29 passengers and crew members survived thanks to the pilots’ actions.

At first, Moscow tried to cover up the incident, officially claiming that the crash was caused by a “bird strike.”  However, the Pentagon, and subsequently the official Azerbaijani investigation, which discovered missile debris in the casing, confirmed Russia’s guilt.

In October 2025, during a meeting with Ilham Aliyev, the Russian dictator acknowledged the damage for the first time, but attempted to shift the blame indirectly to “Ukrainian drones.” After a lengthy denial, in April 2026, Russia officially admitted responsibility and agreed to pay Baku monetary compensation. 

This is a clear example of how it is Russian air defense systems, not Ukrainian drones, that pose a particular threat to international air carriers. 

It is in this context that the Ukrainian side warned international aviation authorities in advance of further risks should be considered.

I will give another example of an incident in the Moscow region in the spring of 2026.

On March 20, 2026, the Russian air defense system  shot down a civilian Alto NG light aircraft in the Kolomensky district of the Moscow region. Russian military personnel mistook it for a Ukrainian attack drone during a massive drone attack on the Russian capital region.

It should be noted that the aircraft was conducting a scheduled, authorized flight from Torbeevo-Start airfield in the Stupino urban district. The crew had official permission, filed a flight plan, and had their transponder activated.

But the crew of the Pantsir-S air defense system accepted  A civilian aircraft mistook a Ukrainian air target and opened fire near Kolomna. After being hit by a missile, the plane completely lost control and crashed in a wooded area near the Oka River. Both occupants died instantly.

The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations officially confirmed the crash and the loss of life, but the Russian Ministry of Defense, as usual, attempted to conceal the involvement of its military in the incident. For a long time, the official cause was cited as a “technical malfunction” or “pilot error,” despite images of the plane’s wreckage, which bore the telltale signs of damage from pre-fabricated lethal elements of a surface-to-air missile, published online.

This incident became yet another example of so-called “friendly fire” by Russian air defenses due to chaos and poor coordination between military services and civilian aviation in the face of regular drone attacks.

Therefore, it is in this context that the fact that the Ukrainian side warned international aviation structures in advance of further risks should be considered.

In response to the Ukrainian warning, ICAO called on all member countries to strengthen the protection of civilian aircraft in conflict zones from the threat of long-range weapons, UAVs, and radio interference. ICAO is updating its recommendations and guidelines for flight risk assessment.

As a reminder, in his address on September 1, 2026, Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that, due to the war unleashed by Russia, the risks to flights over its territory are rapidly increasing, and “Russian skies will de facto be closed.”

 The President clearly emphasized that Ukraine does not attack or intend to threaten passenger aircraft, but calls on international airlines and insurers to take into account the real military risks. 

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