Putin’s Endgame: How Europe Can Defend Itself from Within

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When war rages on the front lines — with trenches, tanks, drones, and missiles — it is visible. Far more dangerous is the war fought in silence: in negotiations, memoranda, subtle shifts in ethnic discourse, and cultural claims. This is the war Russia has waged for decades; February 24, 2022, merely changed its form.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a recent interview with Hungarian journalists, spoke of a “common problem” between Russia and Hungary — the alleged persecution of national minorities in Ukraine. He framed it in the style of the worst colonial empires: as if Ukrainian statehood does not exist, and Ukraine is merely a territory where one must “protect” Russians, Hungarians, Romanians, Poles — anyone, as long as it justifies occupation.

Moscow has used this logic before — to excuse the annexation of Crimea and fuel the war in Donbas. Most recently, at the Inter-Parliamentary Union forum in Geneva, the speaker of Russia’s Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko, claimed the Kremlin’s aggression was aimed at “stopping the killing of people in Donbas.” Back in 2014, when Crimea was annexed and war in Donbas had not yet begun, Russian officials justified their actions by saying they were protecting Crimean residents from a mythical “nationalist threat.”

And this logic lies at the core of the Kremlin’s hybrid strategy — a strategy aimed at undermining European unity, discrediting the European Union, and dismantling the very idea of European integration. Not through open military force, but by empowering the marginalized, colluding with “useful idiots,” and exploiting historical traumas.

It began with the Balkan wars: ethnic conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, Moscow’s support for dictator Slobodan Milosevic and his slogan that “all Serbs should live in one state,” honors bestowed on Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić. Srebrenica prepared the ground for Bucha. Even after the wars in the region ended, Moscow did not relent.

One of the most telling examples is North Macedonia. Russia threw its weight behind Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski — a petty autocrat with a record of corruption — who sought to destabilize the country to block its NATO accession. When that effort failed, he fled not just anywhere, but to Hungary. There, he was given refuge by Viktor Orbán, Moscow’s favorite after Milosevic and another chauvinist. Today, Orbán blocks aid to Ukraine, criticizes NATO, negotiates discounts on Russian gas, and champions the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine on terms that mirror Russian rhetoric.

The Kremlin operates with clarity and consistency: it exploits any interstate dispute to erode trust in the European project. It readily supports chauvinists if they oppose Brussels. It invokes minority rights whenever this can set neighbors against each other. And in every country, it finds “useful idiots” — figures who play the role of loyal allies while ignoring the fact that they are merely tools in a larger geopolitical game.

It is crucial to recognize that these hybrid attacks are no less dangerous than missiles. They corrode the democratic world from within, fostering the perception of the EU as an ineffective body unable to protect its partners. They create the illusion that Moscow poses no real threat — and that “cooperation” with it is more profitable than resistance.

In this context, the stance of Hungarian opposition politician Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza party and a contender for victory in the next elections, is telling. He has already spoken out against Ukraine’s accelerated EU accession and the new European budget. This is no longer Orbán, yet the logic is similar: Magyar cannot risk alienating former supporters of the current prime minister. This suggests that even with a change of government, Hungary could remain a challenge for Europe, perhaps less acute, but still significant.

Can this be resisted? Yes — but only if we stop underestimating the threat. We must recognize that Putin is not fighting solely on the Ukrainian front. His ultimate goal is the fragmentation of Europe, the discrediting of the European project, and the weakening of the collective West.

Resilience in this hybrid war begins with awareness — the ability to identify manipulation, a consistent European stance on minority issues without double standards, and, above all, the understanding that Europe’s unity is defended not only in the trenches of Donbas. It is defended in every city, every parliament, and every public statement.

History has shown that appeasing an aggressor never works. Today

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