Russia Storms Out of “Negotiations,” Pretends Surprise at Consequences

Source: Author’s Facebook page

The expected happened: Russia withdrew from the quasi-negotiations initiated by Donald Trump.

This process has essentially been ongoing since the election and inauguration of Trump, who promised to resolve the war “in one day.” But the Russian-Ukrainian war does not tolerate any deadlines or numbers…

I recall the statements that the agreement is “95% agreed upon,” and only the issue of Donbas remains…

The failure of the negotiations was actually obvious a couple of months ago. And Trump’s attempt to solve the problem of Iran’s nuclear weapons, according to the Venezuelan scenario, was partly an attempt to cancel out the fulfillment of his promise to achieve peace in Ukraine—a successful “little war” in the Middle East.

But it turned out that starting wars is easier than ending them.

What’s next?

Rising fuel prices provide an economic opportunity to continue the war.

The Russians have so far covered the need for people with economic factors—a high fee for signing a contract (about 30 thousand euros) and a monthly payment of 4 thousand.

As long as they have the resources to economically stimulate mobilization, they will do so. But the option of general mobilization remains in their reserve.

The Ukrainian advantage lies in its ability to hold the frontline thanks to the development of drone and NRC technologies.

On a front line with a kill zone, attacking is much more difficult than defending. Because robots can hit anything alive. And without infantry, the front line cannot move.

This is precisely the factor that requires the aggressor to increase resources—people and innovative technology.

In this format, the war can continue until a new technological breakthrough occurs, when someone has a new super technology. The direction is no secret—remote-controlled drones, further robotics, and electronic warfare systems.

A stable front line practically turns this into a testing ground for the latest technologies. And this is starting to suit more and more players. Because the market for modern weapons is growing exponentially.

Ukraine is counting on crisis processes within Russia, while Russia is betting on the collapse of energy and infrastructure in the Ukrainian rear.

Because the rear always holds the front and provides it. A severe winter and another wave of emigration of women and children are among Moscow’s goals. After all, if Ukraine’s population dramatically decreases, Russia will consider it a victory.

And technologies are created by people. And the winner is the one who makes the right bet on human capital. The one who creates conditions, horizontal connections, trust, and healthy competition.

That is why corruption in the defense industry, the system of prohibitions, etc., is an existential problem.

…so, the conclusions are as follows: the illusion of negotiations is over, the war is entering a phase of technological, economic, and human exhaustion, and Ukraine can only win as an open technological state, not as a small copy of Russian authoritarianism.

Because a small authoritarian country will never defeat a large authoritarian one. But a small and technological one is quite capable of freezing this 12-year conflict with nuclear power.

As a reminder, earlier, the Russian dictator’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, called the continuation of peace talks with Ukraine and the United States in a trilateral format “inexpedient.” According to him, negotiations are not needed until Ukraine withdraws its soldiers from Donbas.

Russia’s new statements on the terms of peace talks indicate that the Kremlin has no intention of ending the war even if control over Donbas is established. At the same time, according to sources in the president’s team, the key role in the negotiations is played by the US position, not Moscow’s statements. Washington, like Ukraine, insists on the need to end the war diplomatically.

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