Russia threatens systematic strikes against Kyiv: ISW names reason

Russia is threatening systematic strikes on Kyiv following a three-day “truce” on Victory Day, seeking to demonstrate strength after suffering reputational losses due to the need for a ceasefire.

Russia is also planning missile and drone attacks in advance and is calling on foreign diplomats, citizens, and international organizations to evacuate Kyiv. At the same time, Russia is urging residents of the capital to avoid areas with military and government infrastructure.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War.

According to analysts, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is attempting to recover from the symbolic humiliation of Victory Day, as he was effectively forced to negotiate a ceasefire amid security risks.

According to ISW, Russia is trying to conceal its inability to defend Moscow and its rear regions from Ukrainian attacks by striking Kyiv.

Furthermore, Russian forces are failing to achieve significant operational results in the spring-summer offensive of 2026. Ukrainian counterattacks, the general dominance of drones on the battlefield, and a campaign of medium-range strikes are slowing Russia’s advance and increasing its material and human losses.

Putin previously stated that the attack on Kyiv was allegedly a response to the attack on Starobelsk.

“Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to report Russian threats against Kyiv and continue the Kremlin’s information operation, falsely portraying Ukraine and its European allies as undermining peace efforts,” the report states.

Analysts note that Russia has repeatedly resorted to massive shelling before or after important negotiations in an attempt to disrupt or delay the diplomatic process.

At the same time, Moscow provided no evidence that the facility in Starobilsk was civilian. The Ukrainian side claimed that the college grounds housed the headquarters of the Russian special forces unit “Rubicon.”

ISW also noted that Russia could not have prepared a large-scale attack in 48 hours; such strikes require weeks of preparation.

Moreover, the Kremlin is exploiting the shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles, which complicates Kyiv’s defense against missile attacks, especially ballistic ones.

“The Kremlin is trying to soften the reaction of the West, including the United States, to the massive strikes on Ukraine, presenting them as a response to an isolated incident, rather than as part of a broader strategy of pressure and refusal to engage in real peace talks,” the analysts emphasized.

Earlier, Pryamyi reported that two people were killed and 87 others were injured in Kyiv as a result of massive Russian shelling on the night of May 24, including three children. Damage to civilian and administrative infrastructure was recorded at 49 locations across the city.

During the attack, the Russians also used an Oreshnik missile at Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region. The strike damaged three garages.

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