“Security Guarantees” from the US: Zelenskyy Turns Daydreams into Policy

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Zelenskyy has already gained notoriety for his wasteful spending on PR while signing dozens of empty “security agreements.” In reality, these documents turned out to be toothless memoranda: there are photo ops and flashy headlines, but no legal guarantees—no “if attacked, the fire brigade will come.”

And now—a new series. Zelenskyy solemnly declares that the US security guarantees are “100% ready.”  The Washington Post writes about this (in the WP feed with a reference to the Associated Press): they say the document is ready, all that remains is to sign, and then there is also “ratification” in Congress and in our country. It sounds as if tomorrow, NATO Article 5 will be addressed to Ukraine, with a seal, a ribbon, and a brass band.

But let’s switch to “read the fine print” mode, because we’ve already been “protected” once by the Budapest Memorandum.
First. The Fifth Article of NATO is not just a nice phrase—it is a mechanism: an attack on one is considered an attack on all, and specific actions follow. Specific! From everyone, as much as possible! Missiles from some, words of support from others. And yet, here we are, being sold the phrase “guarantees” without any clear obligation regarding what exactly the US would do if the Russian Federation strikes again. Air defense? Aviation? Troops? Automatic sanctions? Reaction time? Nothing is clear.

Second. The Budapest Memorandum also began as “serious assurances”: respect for borders, non-use of force, and consultations. And it ended with the main guarantor becoming the main aggressor, and consultations turning into a genre of “deep concern.” So if the current “100% document” is again about words, not about triggers and actions, then it has not deviated far from Budapest; it is simply a more fashionable font.

Third. They scare us with “ratification” as if it were a magic spell; they say that if it is ratified, it means it is ironclad. But ratification in itself does not make a piece of paper “Article 5.” A declaration of intentions can also be ratified. The question is not in the procedure but in the content: Does it create a duty to respond or merely a commitment to “support and facilitate”?

So my simple test: show three things in the document—the conditions for launching assistance, a list of mandatory steps, and a response time frame. This is not a guarantee. Again, this is just “wishful thinking,” only now it comes certified as “100%.”

Ukraine is tired of Zelensky’s lies and doesn’t need empty words. The country demands that the next “security paper” not end up as another exhibit in the museum of ‘We Were Reassured Again.’ Time and again, we are reassured—only for them to forget a minute later what they promised!

Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the document on security guarantees for Ukraine is fully prepared. Kyiv is currently awaiting a signal from the United States regarding the place and date of its signing.

At the same time, whether Ukraine receives security guarantees from the United States may depend on how ready Kyiv is to withdraw troops from the unoccupied areas of Donbas. According to the Financial Times, the Donald Trump administration has made clear to Kyiv that US security guarantees will depend on its acceptance of a peace agreement.

The US later unveiled a mechanism of security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a new Russian invasion. According to the Financial Times, in the event of an escalation, the West is ready to respond militarily within 72 hours. Sources tell the newspaper that the plan consists of three stages.

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