Terror and “debilitation”: how the Chekists’ war differs from the generals’ war

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A few days before the fourth anniversary of the start of Russia’s major attack on Ukraine, an explosion occurred in the very center of Lviv, which was classified by law enforcement agencies as a terrorist act.

What happened once again reminded us of the multi-layered nature of the Russian-Ukrainian war, that it cannot be reduced solely to a clash of armies. After all, the war with Ukraine is being waged by a state in which power is monopolized by the special services – the heirs of the former Committee for State Security of the USSR, which in the new historical conditions exists under the banner of the Federal Security Service and the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia. But the main institution that the KGB received is the position of the President of Russia. The main office of the country, which the Chekists have always dreamed of: what security guard does not want to take the chair of his own “object”!

It is necessary to understand that the war of the Chekists is different from the war of the generals. Yes, the Kremlin, of course, would like the army to simply seize the entire territory of Ukraine and allow the FSB to proceed to the procedures of “filtration” and “identification of enemies.” But when the military, which is one of Putin’s tools for achieving the goal, fails, this does not mean that the FSB calms down and waits for the outcome of military actions.

Destabilizing an enemy country through terror is one of the important factors in favor of the army, because it allows you to keep the population of such a country in constant tension, eliminate unwanted politicians and activists, and create new dividing lines. By the way, when I talk about an enemy country, I want to remind you that for the FSB leadership, Russia itself was such a country at a certain time – when there were still sentiments in its society related to the demand for a normal human life. The army was waging war in Chechnya, and the Chekists were terrorizing and blowing up buildings in Moscow and other Russian cities, killing opposition politicians and journalists, and therefore “working.”

Another important factor in the capture of Ukraine is political propaganda. Until 2014, it was Russian television, along with TV channels close to the Ukrainian authorities and oligarchs, such as Inter or 1+1, that was engaged in this, and it remained the main source of information for many Ukrainians. It was this television that contributed to the victory in the presidential elections of Leonid Kuchma in 1994 and Viktor Yanukovych in 2010, therefore, it really helped to degrade Ukrainian society and keep Ukraine in the “gray zone” of Russian influence.

After 2014, Russian television was replaced by Medvedchuk’s channels, and after 2022, anonymous Telegram channels began to play an equally important role in the “debilitation” of Ukrainians, and now I see a new trend – Russians will enter the Ukrainian market with the assistance of right-wing radicals from the West. And formally we will see the opening of some American or European media, but, in fact, it will be the same FSB.

Another important factor of influence is economic dictate, along with the bribery of not only those in power and oligarchs, but also the population itself, which always forgets the proverb about a mousetrap and cheap cheese, sorry, but gas. It was with the help of gas that they tried to hold Ukraine back and prevent it from turning towards the West back in the days of Boris Yeltsin, and Putin was already ready for outright blackmail, which only intensified after the Maidan of 2004 and the victory in the presidential elections of Viktor Yushchenko.

And no one said that Russia will not use economic instruments in the future, and moreover, even if we imagine a still unrealistic situation with the end of hostilities in the foreseeable future, the Kremlin will try to incorporate the tools of economic dictate into any peace agreement. Of course, with the assistance of the American administration, in which even at the level of Vice President J.D. Vance they talked about the importance of trade between Russia and Ukraine. How can we not use such a vision of the situation?

The list of all these tools convinces that the question “when will the Russian-Ukrainian war end?” can be answered only once – never. As long as the Russians believe that the statehood of Ukraine must be liquidated and the Ukrainian people abolished, the conflict will continue on several levels of escalation, even if Moscow does not have enough strength for intensive military action. It is for such a development that both Ukrainian citizens living at home and those who find themselves abroad should prepare.

Because preserving the state and the Ukrainian people in the conditions of a long war, terror, propaganda and economic pressure will remain our main task. And the years of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict – if we start even with the Maidan of 2013-2014 and the Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbas – have demonstrated that such a task can be coped with even in the most difficult moments, of course, if we maintain unity, common sense and a realistic understanding of the situation.

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