The May 9 trap: what will happen if the “truce” breaks down?

Ukraine is dictating new rules of the game, and the Kremlin has found itself in a diplomatic and military trap. While Moscow is preparing for another sacred date, Ukrainian drones and the latest missiles are already reaching targets thousands of kilometers from the border. Will Russia dare to strike the center of Kyiv, and what exactly are they trying to intimidate Ukrainians with now?

This and much more was told on the air of “Pryamoy” by military and political observer of the group “Information Resistance” Oleksandr Kovalenko

Official Kyiv offered Moscow a ceasefire starting at midnight, placing the aggressor in conditions of mirror responsibility. Oleksandr Kovalenko, analyzing this step, notes that such an initiative demonstrates the ability of Ukrainian diplomacy to outplay the enemy in the international arena. The situation arose against the backdrop of constant attacks from the Russians, who at the same time tried to ask for special conditions until May 9.

“This is the second year we have diplomatically outwitted the Russian Federation,” Kovalenko emphasized, recalling similar maneuvers in 2025. The guest noted that previously Ukraine had offered longer ceasefire terms to show the world its readiness for negotiations, while Russia limited itself to short windows of silence to solve its own logistical problems.

The observer reminds that last year the occupiers used the calm regime only where they needed to bring in ammunition or fuel. In other areas of the front, the assaults did not stop. Now Ukraine no longer accepts ultimatums and is playing its own game, forcing Moscow to choose between a real ceasefire and another exposure of its aggressive nature to the international community, – added Oleksandr Kovalenko.

Instead, Moscow is threatening to strike “disproportionate” strikes on the government quarter of Kyiv if attacks on the Russian capital take place on May 9. In particular, the aggressor is trying to intimidate Ukraine by using Rubizh systems and kinetic energy missiles. Kovalenko considers these threats to be an element of blackmail that will not bring the enemy the desired result due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense.

“And the Kremlin will really be in flames,” the observer emphasized, commenting on the possibility of a mirror response. He explained that the power of the new Russian “dummies” is actually less than the warhead of a regular “Shahed”, and Ukraine has already successfully repelled attempts to hit the center of the capital with “Daggers” on several occasions.

The expert is convinced that this game can be played by two people, and if Russia dares to launch a massive attack on Khreshchatyk or Bankova, Ukraine has every right to respond with strikes on Frunzenskaya Embankment.

Previous drone flights over the Kremlin have proven the vulnerability of the Russian decision-making center, so Moscow should weigh its every step, summed up Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer for the Information Resistance group.

Recall, Russia declared a so-called ceasefire on May 8 and 9 , but at the same time threatened to strike the center of Kyiv in case of attempts to disrupt the parade in Moscow. In addition, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that the civilian population of Kyiv and employees of foreign diplomatic missions should leave the city in advance in case of “attempts to disrupt the parade.”

Subsequently, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine had not received any official appeal from Russia regarding the format of the cessation of hostilities, which had previously been reported on Russian social media. The Head of State emphasized that it is realistic to ensure a ceasefire by this time, and Ukraine will act in a mirror manner, starting from the specified moment.

At the same time, according to a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major Oleksiy Hetman, Russia does not want to negotiate directly with Ukraine, but only with the United States regarding a ceasefire on May 9. This means that there will be no real ceasefire .

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