The probability of a Russian invasion of Europe is increasing: how to avoid it

Source: Author’s Facebook page

The likelihood of a Russian invasion of European countries is growing, fueled by the problems the US military has faced in Iran, as well as the open dispute between the US president and European NATO members over their refusal to support the Americans in the Iranian operation.

And for Russia to organize such an invasion, it is not necessary to end the war in Ukraine. In the current conditions, a Russian invasion of the Baltic states could become part of the war against Ukraine, and Putin will offer to exchange the cessation of hostilities in Europe for the cessation of European support for Ukraine.

The basis of the modern security system of European countries is NATO and the US army as its key element. America’s involvement in the Iranian operation, which is currently only in its initial stages and has the potential to escalate, creates obvious limitations on its possible involvement in another war in Europe. And President Trump’s public insults to European allies over their position on Iran increase the likelihood that the US will not want to get involved in another war in Europe and help those who have refused to support Trump himself.

In other words, there has hardly been a period in NATO’s history when the organization has been weaker than it is now. Russia, on the other hand, is at the peak of its military power: it has a million-strong army, a developed military industry, and relevant combat experience in modern warfare. There are only two forces in the world capable of countering this: the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the US Army.

And the main risk for Europeans is that in the event of a Russian invasion, none of these armies will come to their aid: one will be forced to defend its own country, the other will remain involved in the war in Iran.

On Thursday, March 19, the Russian government registered a bill in the State Duma on the use of the Russian army abroad “to protect Russians.” Before that, the State Duma had only twice passed decisions on the use of the army outside the country – in 2014 and 2022. And both times it ended with an invasion of Ukraine.

It is obvious that there is only one reliable type of security guarantee for Europe – its own armies. The experience of the European Union shows that Europe is truly strong when it is united. Therefore, the creation of an army of a united Europe should become a key task for all European countries in the near future.

The formation of such an army based on the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not only give Europeans the real combat experience necessary to defend their countries, but will also help end the war in Ukraine and truly guarantee that Russia will not be able and will not want to repeat anything again.

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