“There will be no peace until July 4th”: what are the real prospects for ending the war

Optimistic expectations about signing peace agreements by July 4 have no factual basis. Currently, there are no conditions even for a short-term ceasefire, as the parties are taking uncompromising positions.

This opinion was expressed on the air of “Pryamoy” by politician and former military serviceman Volodymyr Omelyan, commenting on the statements of the American administration and the current situation on the front.

“I don’t see any possibility or real foundation for not just peace, but even a ceasefire this year,” he noted, explaining this by the fact that Russia is publicly demonstrating its determination to continue aggression, and the Ukrainian leadership has not yet decided on the optimal structure for ending the conflict.

According to Omelyan, both sides are trying to create the illusion of closeness to constructiveness, counting on support from Washington, but a real solution to the issue is possible only if the enemy army is defeated or the aggressor country is internally destabilized. Any pause without fulfilling these conditions only threatens a new wave of escalation in the future, the studio guest is convinced.

In addition, as the politician noted, the Russian Federation was able to effectively adapt its economic system to a long-term confrontation, which allows it to plan military operations for a significant period of time. Despite the exhaustion of certain reserves, the Kremlin has a sufficient margin of safety to continue aggression for at least eighteen months, Omelyan believes.

“Since they have successfully rebuilt… on military rails and they actually have a wartime economy, with the resources they have, they are ready to fight for at least another year and a half, or even longer,” the interlocutor emphasized, adding that Russian society is still accepting the huge human losses without visible protests or unrest.

The day before, Bloomberg, citing European and NATO officials, reported that the White House is pushing for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by July 4 , US Independence Day. However, according to Western officials, there is no indication that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is ready to conclude an agreement that does not meet his basic demands.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that new peace talks between Ukraine, the United States and Russia could take place in the near future . He made the corresponding statement during a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” in Kyiv. According to the head of state, Ukraine wants to see Europe as a participant in the negotiation process.

Recall that previous rounds were held in the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland . Kyiv and Moscow then called the negotiations productive, but the real result was limited to the exchange of prisoners of war.