Thousands of missiles instead of “assurances”: what should real security guarantees be?

Discussions about security assurances for Ukraine often boil down to discussing analogs of NATO’s Article 5, which provides for collective defense. However, this clause only states the fact of an attack, leaving each country the freedom to respond – from expressing concern to sending a military contingent.

This was reported on the air of “Pryamoy” by political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko.

He emphasized that for Ukraine, paper “assurances” are insufficient without concrete military support capable of effectively deterring the aggressor.

“Article Five of NATO does not respond or guarantee anything. It only certifies that an attack on one of the NATO countries is an attack on all of NATO. But each country forms the reaction to this attack in its own way: someone will express concern, someone will hand over helmets, someone blankets, and someone may even send an armed contingent,” explains Tsybulko.

In his opinion, effective guarantees for Ukraine are the presence of modern weapons, such as thousands of Tomahawk missiles or even Trident intercontinental missiles under Ukrainian control. True security, he said, lies in the ability to inflict disproportionate damage on the aggressor in response to any manifestations of aggression.

The political scientist also noted the formation of a fund to compensate for losses for Ukraine with the participation of 55 countries, which indicates attempts to hold the aggressor accountable, since Ukrainians no longer believe only in paper agreements, remembering the Budapest Memorandum.

As a reminder, the United States, together with its European partners , have completed the approval of a draft security guarantees for Ukraine, which provides for a large-scale strengthening of the Armed Forces, the deployment of a European military contingent, and the key role of American intelligence in deterring new Russian aggression.

The agreements were reached during two days of consultations in Berlin involving representatives of the United States, European countries and Ukraine. As a result, the parties agreed on two documents that should form the basis of a potential agreement to end hostilities in the war, which has been going on for almost four years.

At the same time , Ukraine and Russia have not yet reached an agreement on Donbas within the framework of peace negotiations, while the parties have made progress on security guarantees and further steps in the negotiation process. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia insists on the transfer of all of Donbas to it within the framework of the peace plan, but Ukraine’s position remains unchanged – there will be no territorial concessions.

It should be noted that the issue of Ukraine’s possible refusal to join NATO in exchange for the promised security guarantees has become a subject of heated discussion. However, such a scenario is unacceptable for Ukraine , as it does not correspond to the current Constitution, which clearly defines the country’s Euro-Atlantic course, – said Volodymyr Ar’yev, a member of parliament from the “European Solidarity” party, on the air of “Pryamoy”.

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