Trump-Xi meeting: why the results of the talks are positive for Ukraine
фото: Reuters
Overall, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea can be assessed as positive for Ukraine. However, our country faces two likely scenarios that will directly depend on the effectiveness of US anti-Russian sanctions.
This opinion was expressed on the air of “Pryamoy” by Vadym Denysenko, head of the analytical center “Dilova Stolytsia”.
According to him, during this meeting, the leaders of the United States and China discussed three key topics.
“The first is to prevent a direct military clash between China and the US. This primarily refers to Taiwan. This is one of the basic things. That is, to prevent a direct military clash in any case. But, in principle, this issue is not so relevant or acute today,” Denisenko noted.
“The second key question is how world trade will exist at a time when China insists that the World Trade Organization continue to operate, and the US has been systematically destroying the WTO and its rules for the past seven years. In fact, this is the basic question of how world trade will exist in the next few years,” he added.
At the same time, the political scientist believes, within the framework of the third key issue of how China and the United States will earn on the European Union market, Ukraine was also discussed.
“The parties will not reach this point until several months have passed. But the issue of Ukraine – because without a security factor it is impossible to resolve the issue of how and who will earn money in Europe – will also arise in these few months. In an optimistic scenario, this will happen no earlier than 4-6 months. But at the same time, the beginning of these negotiations was positive. Because the beginning of the negotiations took place with positive decisions. Both sides took a step back: the Chinese lifted their restrictions on rare earth metals, Trump lifted his announced tariffs. And, in fact, the parties returned to a certain status quo, agreeing that they will not enter these trade wars within the next year,” explains Denisenko.
He also recalled that in a year the US will hold crucial midterm elections to the Senate and Congress, so it would be extremely important for Trump to enter into productive negotiations with China over the next 6-9 months on all three points: on preventing war, on world trade, and on the issue of Europe, in particular within Ukraine.
In general, the expert believes, Ukraine faces two likely scenarios, which will depend on the effectiveness of US anti-Russian sanctions.
“We have two scenarios. One pessimistic one for us is when the losses of the Russian budget will amount to approximately 10-15%. This is unpleasant, but not painful. In the optimistic scenario for us, when the Americans really get involved, the oil losses of the Russian budget could amount to from 40% to 50%. This is really very serious, this is approximately 10% of the entire budget in total, if we talk in general figures. But so far, unfortunately, the situation is developing according to a rather negative scenario for us of India circumventing these sanctions,” Vadim Denisenko noted.
As a reminder, US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held their first bilateral meeting in South Korea since Trump returned to the White House on October 30. The talks began at 4 a.m. Kyiv time and lasted 1 hour and 40 minutes. After the meeting, the heads of state left without making statements to the press.
US President Donald Trump later announced an agreement with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to temporarily suspend export restrictions on rare earth metals, part of a broader year-long trade deal reached at a summit in South Korea.
According to Trump, the meeting was “incredible” and deserves a “12” on a scale of 0 to 10. The US President said that the parties agreed on “a set of important decisions” and the signing of the agreement is expected in the near future.
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