Trump’s deal with Putin: why you shouldn’t be offended

Source: Author’s Facebook page

We need to start with the numbers. Trump agreed that Putin should deliver 4.8 million tons of diesel to the US (urgently 300 thousand tons). 4.8 million tons is about one month of US consumption. If Russia really delivers 4–5 million tons of diesel to the US, it will be about 4 times more than all US imports of Russian distillate fuel in 2021.

Does Russia have the opportunity to additionally supply such volumes to the American market? Maybe, but only on condition that Ukraine stops attacking Russian refineries. And here we come to the main point: apparently, Trump has already issued an ultimatum to Ukraine: you don’t attack the refineries, and in exchange you will get nothing. More precisely, in theory, he can again return to the idea that you don’t attack the refineries or I will once again prohibit providing any assistance. And this situation is much more complicated than a quarrel in the Oval Office. Today, there are much fewer options for getting out of this dilemma. After all, there is practically no room left for compromises.

The main open question: Trump’s logic (motivation). And here we seem to have a big tangle of disparate and unrelated motives. First, sincere dislike for Zelensky, which is somehow extrapolated to Ukraine. Second, hopes for a big deal with Putin in which there will be clear financial indicators for specific people who lobby for this very big deal. Third, scrambling before the elections and an attempt to break the trend of continued decline in Trump’s rating, which makes these elections, de facto, a referendum on confidence in himself and tries to finally crush the party under MAGA. Somewhere on the periphery there is an attempt to play Russia against China, although this is becoming almost an unrealistic task.

What are Putin’s motives? Everything is quite transparent here: he wants to become the third pole of the world and achieve his Yalta-2. And here we have a situation where Putin wants it, Trump is ready to agree, because for him it is an insignificant story and only China is clearly opposed to this story.

As in all previous situations, any frontal Ukrainian actions are counterproductive. So, what Ukraine needs to do:

• Our main ally now is the American media, which lives by its own laws and rules. And Trump is forced to obey these rules. Therefore, our main goal now is to gain support from the American media. Let me remind all skeptics: it was the media that defeated the spirit of Anchorage.
• To do this, in my opinion, we need to come up with our peace plan, which should be in many ways analogous to the May 9, 2026 campaign. We must declare that we are ready to allow Russia to export 4.8 million tons of diesel to the United States, but only in the absence of attacks on our energy sector. An attack on an energy facility is equal to an attack on tankers and refineries. Unfortunately, we are forced to escalate with all the corresponding consequences. But we must very clearly convey this plan to the world, without theatrical gestures. This is an all-in game. Perhaps the most difficult thing since 02/24/2022
• We must understand: we are very limited in time, because we are facing the threat of the collapse of the financial coalition in support of Ukraine after the March elections in France.
• At the same time, we must finally realize: the US-Russia-Ukraine negotiating triangle is dead (Rubio admitted this the other day, by the way). We need to look for a new negotiating platform. This is the main task, because otherwise we will find ourselves in an extremely difficult situation without a plan B.
• And another important point: politicians do not take offense if they are in a difficult position. The worst scenario is to start playing the offended one, following the mood of a large part of the electorate. Only the strongest players can afford to be offended.

Recall that US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the American and world markets. According to him, Russia should immediately supply more than 300 thousand tons of fuel, and later – several million tons more.

Subsequently, the United Kingdom, Finland and the European Union reacted to the agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel fuel to the American and world markets. Representatives of European states and the European Commission stressed the need to maintain sanctions pressure on Russia and reduce dependence on its energy resources.

Also follow “Pryamim” on Facebook , X , Telegram , and Instagram.

• The materials published in the “OPINIONS” section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the veracity of the information.
• The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.
• The owner of the webpage in the “OPINIONS” section is the author of the publication.