Two years to prepare: will Russia have enough forces for a war against Europe?

European officials see the next two years as a potential period for increased Russian pressure on the West, citing political volatility in the United States and shifting global centers of influence.

Vadym Chernysh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Center for Security Studies “SENSS”, analyzed how real the threats from the Russian Federation are to the European continent against the backdrop of the depletion of Russian resources in the war against Ukraine.

“I think that these hybrid threats to Europe are a little above average, not maximum, because the Russians lack the strength and reserves,” the studio guest noted.

According to him, despite alarming media forecasts, a significant part of Moscow’s offensive potential is currently tied up on the Ukrainian fronts. This applies not only to regular troops, but also to intelligence services, FSB resources, and satellite systems, so the aggressor is even forced to attract reinforcements from North Korea to close the gaps in the defense of its own territories, Chernysh explained.

At the same time, the expert adds, Russian special services are actively using hybrid warfare tools to destabilize European society. Critical infrastructure, including underwater internet cables and energy networks, has come under fire.

“The Russians are constantly tearing them down, or the ships connected to them are constantly tearing them down. What kind of cables are these? There are two types of cables. They are mainly tearing down the cables that carry the Internet,” Cherysh said about the specific methods of influence that the Kremlin uses to create chaos in European countries.

In addition to physical sabotage, the enemy is working to split public opinion. To do this, they involve people recruited remotely via Telegram who organize provocative actions. Examples include the appearance of anti-Semitic graffiti in Paris and the organization of explosions in the Czech Republic. Hybrid attacks also include interference in the operation of civil aviation using electronic warfare in the Kaliningrad region.

Vadym Chernysh emphasized that such actions are aimed at intensifying internal contradictions between different social groups, and this, in turn, becomes part of a strategy of political pressure on the governments of EU countries.

As a reminder, Germany has presented a military strategy for the first time in history, in which Russia is recognized as the main threat to European security . Official Berlin, in particular, plans to transform the Bundeswehr into the most powerful army on the continent.

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry has published a list of companies located in Europe that allegedly produce and supply drones to Ukraine. Such a move, the press service of the ministry claims, will lead to an escalation of the military-political situation on the European continent and the transformation of these countries into Ukraine’s strategic rear.

In addition, the Kremlin is actively building the psychological and informational foundation for a possible future war against NATO. At the same time , Russia is creating a network of “Trojan horses” by buying up real estate near military bases in NATO countries to launch a coordinated sabotage campaign. The Kremlin has also intensified its propaganda campaign to create a “Narva People’s Republic,” which may indicate that the Kremlin is preparing to attack Estonia.

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