From Diplomatic Drama to Battlefield Ammo: The Twisted Path of Ukrainian-Serbian Relations

Source: Author’s Facebook page

On the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Balkans once again exposed their geopolitical fault lines. As much of the democratic world reaffirmed solidarity with Kyiv, an act of vandalism in Novi Sad—where unknown individuals splashed black paint over a monument to Taras Shevchenko—underscored the region’s lingering ambivalence. The incident became a stark symbol of the uneasy balance between official diplomacy, public sentiment, and the complex political currents shaping Serbia’s stance toward Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Embassy described it as a shameful act of vandalism. In my view, the incident offers an opportunity to examine how modern realpolitik operates. We must learn to avoid resorting to cheap provocations when national strategic interests are at stake.

In the information space, Serbia is traditionally perceived as a partner of the Kremlin in Europe. This perception has been largely shaped by the legacy of the late 1990s, Serbia’s energy dependence on Moscow, and its common stance on Kosovo. Yet beyond the surface of these ties lies a far more complex and pragmatic reality.

Few people openly discuss it, but Serbia has become one of the key indirect suppliers of ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to Western analysts, the volume of Serbian military exports delivered to Ukraine via third countries has already exceeded €800 million.

At the same time, President Vučić maintains a carefully calibrated position. He has refrained from imposing sanctions on Russia so as not to alienate his domestic electorate, even as Serbian factories continue fulfilling European contracts for artillery shells that ultimately end up on Ukraine’s front line.

In this context, the defaced Shevchenko monument appears as a classic act of provocation. For enemy intelligence services, it is important to create friction between Kyiv and Belgrade in the public eye perception because each such news item sparks waves of anger on social media, artificially portraying Serbia as a hostile actor. In addition, this provides an ideal image for internal reports to their overseers, creating the illusion of mass support for the Kremlin at minimal cost.

Relations between Ukraine and Serbia are not straightforward. We can and should be outraged by vandalism, but we must not forget about the specifics of real assistance. If Serbia balances to some extent between Moscow and the West through such actions or neutral statements while continuing to ship scarce shells for our artillery, then this is the price dictated by modern diplomacy.

We need to learn to separate emotional noise from strategic results. The monument in Novi Sad will definitely be washed away, but the shells that hold the front save lives here and now. The incident with the bust of the Kobzar is just an attempt to confuse us, so we should look at the numbers of military cooperation, not at cans of paint.

As a reminder, in the Serbian city of Novi Sad, unknown persons doused the monument to Taras Shevchenko with black paint. The incident occurred on February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to Razglas News, an anti-war rally in support of Ukraine was scheduled to take place near the monument on February 24 at 7:00 p.m. The act of vandalism likely occurred on the eve of the event.

Also, follow “Pryamyi” on Facebook, X, Telegram, and Instagram.

• Materials published in the “OPINIONS” section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.
• The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.
• The owner of the webpage in the “OPINIONS” section is the author of the publication.