Ukraine Doesn’t Trust the Truce: Four Scenarios for What Comes Next

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Two days ago, I outlined four possible scenarios for the course of the war, based on an assessment by military analyst Anders Nielsen of the Danish Defense College, and invited readers to vote on which outcome they believe is most likely by the end of the year. The results reveal a deep skepticism among Ukrainians about the prospects of a genuine ceasefire.

Such a vote cannot determine the most likely scenario, but it can determine your expectations (let’s not get confused).

Here they are, these four scenarios.

1. A real truce.
Pros for the Russian regime: saving the Russian economy, reducing social tension.
Cons for the Russian regime: formal recognition of the inability to conquer “its” territories, the return of “Veterans of the Northern Military District”.

2. Freezing of the front line, continuation of the war.
Advantages for the Russian regime: maintaining regime stability, a chance of victory due to Ukraine’s exhaustion.
Cons for the Russian regime: growing economic crisis and related problems.

3. Full-scale mobilization.
Pros for the Russian regime: chance of victory due to increased pressure.
Cons for the Russian regime: risk of economic collapse and risk of public discontent and elite division.

4. Attack on NATO countries.
Pros for the Russian regime: intimidating Europeans in order to reduce support for Ukraine.
Cons for the Russian regime: risk of a harsh response from Europe.

Technically, all four scenarios are possible. The regime has enough resources to mobilize. The army has enough resources to attack either the Baltic states or Poland (with or without the use of ground forces).

Nielsen believes that the most logical option is to freeze and continue the war. But Putin’s logic is different from Nielsen’s. In January, I analyzed Putin’s logic and described it as a logic of constant escalation, called “dominance at the table” (see the first comment).

Now let’s move on to your expectations.

At the beginning of the voting, the mobilization scenario was at the top for a very long time. I thought it would be like that until the end, but here are the results.

Escalation towards NATO countries – 599
Mobilization – 391
Freezing – 237
Real truce – 11

Some respondents wrote that mobilization will be simultaneous with escalation against NATO countries, but this is not a very balanced position. After all, escalation is done precisely to avoid mobilization. Mobilization allows for increased direct pressure on Ukraine, and then there is no point in risking escalation.

Personally, I also consider escalation to NATO countries to be the most likely scenario, I have written about it many times in both the Ukrainian and Polish press. The risk is high, but if successful, it allows Russia to immediately achieve the strategic goals of the war: to take the European Union out of the game, lift sanctions, regain frozen assets and interrupt support for Ukraine (without European support, Ukraine will not last long).

The US is unlikely to support Europe, and China will benefit from all this. At the same time, if Europe is ready for such a development and increases military integration with Ukraine, then Russia will face a rather quick setback. This is Putin’s typical decision-making path: choose the all-in option that is the riskiest, raises the stakes the most, and promises the greatest reward if successful.

At the same time, mobilization should not be discounted, and this means that Ukraine as a whole and each and every one of us should think about what to do in this scenario.

I’m glad that no one believes in a real truce. Finally, without illusions.

There are still some people running around the city talking about elections in six months. Well, well. This is the eighth time in the last four or so years, if I’m not mistaken (there’s no one to ask, because the political scientists I know have lost count).

You all know what needs to be done. Do everything you can for your own resilience, for the Defense Forces, and for those who are having it harder than you.

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