Washington to Budapest: Can the War Really End?
Russian traditional nesting dolls, known as Matryoshkas, with images of Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are placed on a shelf during a demonstration at a gift shop in central Moscow, Russia, August 12, 2025. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova
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Trump’s statement after talks with Zelenskyy makes clear that his goal is to halt the war on the front lines. The key question now is: what will Putin say in response?
So far, Russian media have completely ignored Trump’s statement about the front line. Such unanimity is possible only on direct instructions from the Kremlin. The Kremlin typically employs three tactics in such situations: it offers its own interpretation; it allows the media to bury an unwanted story amid speculation and then selects a few dominant narratives for public consumption; or it simply switches to silence. As of now, twelve hours after Trump’s statement, the Kremlin has chosen silence.
The meaning of this silence is difficult to determine at the moment. It could signal preparation for agreeing to the proposed formula, or, conversely, preparation to say “no” in Budapest.
Trump’s conversation with Zelenskyy appears to have been a kind of ultimatum, framed with introductory points: Trump seeks a ceasefire on the front line and is willing to accommodate Putin’s other demands — including recognition of Russian parties in elections, concessions to the Russian Orthodox Church, acknowledgment of the Russian language, withdrawal of lawsuits, and partial lifting of sanctions. It remains unclear what Russia will demand in return regarding the reduction of Ukraine’s missile program, armed forces, and broader military-industrial complex. If an agreement is reached, presidential elections would be held within forty-five days, possibly concurrently with elections to the Verkhovna Rada.
In this context, there was no chance — not even theoretically — to discuss Tomahawks or energy issues. And it should be repeated: at this stage, Tomahawks are a hybrid issue, not a purely military one. Putin was clearly alarmed: if a deal is not reached, Ukraine could destroy the oil terminal.
Another issue currently on hold is a license for rare earth mining in northern Russia for American companies. After speaking with Putin, Trump indicated that he expects economic projects to begin only after a peace agreement. This would also be part of the Budapest framework, if an agreement is reached. Putin faces a particularly difficult position here, as China will almost certainly oppose such a development.
Trump aims to enter negotiations with China as a “peacemaker,” seeking to prevent a united front between China and Russia. Even if no agreement is reached, Russia will remain in a position where it must balance between Beijing and Washington, rather than fully submit to Beijing. The Tomahawks can always be brought back to the table if needed.
If the negotiations fail, Trump will still be compelled to address the Ukrainian issue. The logic of U.S. elections will force him to support Ukraine at least in the provision of weapons. Therefore, any narrative portraying him as abandoning Ukraine should be immediately rejected, though it will likely be promoted by Russian media and useful idiots.
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