Zelenskyy’s 20 Demands: Shortcut to Peace or Endless Negotiations?
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Finland's President Alexander Stubb, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pose for a family photo amid negotiations to end the Russian war in Ukraine, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 18, 2025. REUTERS/Alexander Drago/File Photo
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No expert analysis is needed to conclude this: in its present form, the document will not be signed.
We need to start with the question: why was this plan made public at all, considering that the parties had remained silent until now? There may be several possible explanations:
– The Americans requested it (though I don’t really believe this);
– It was coordinated with certain European actors (in my view, this cannot be ruled out);
– Continuing talks with the Russians may have forced the Americans to harden the conditions (I believe this is one of the more plausible reasons);
– It could be part of the President’s internal political strategy (which I also consider a plausible reason).
2. What happens next?
– As noted above, this document will almost certainly not be signed. The Russians will refuse to sign it.
– The Americans will continue negotiations, responding to the Kremlin’s tougher stance, and will apply pressure on Ukraine, including by rejecting any analogy with NATO’s Article 5.
– It is possible that the negotiations issue will once again become a point of contention between Democrats and Republicans, which would pose a global challenge for us.
3. Putin will engage in peace talks only under two conditions: either out of fear (Trump currently lacks leverage, and China is unlikely to play the U.S. game) or if he can secure the conditions he desires—territorial gains, lifting of sanctions, a return to the global stage, and ideally influence over Ukrainian elections. The last point still seems unrealistic, but he will certainly push for the first three.
Special attention should be paid to Macron’s visit to Russia on 02/07/26, where, as one acquaintance aptly noted, Macron may assume the role of a modern-day Chamberlain.
Based on the above, I strongly doubt that we are anywhere near the finish line.
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