A Game of Fear and Excuses: Putin’s Air War on Europe

Source: Author’s Facebook page

The very day I was working on this story, Poland and Romania declared air alerts and scrambled aircraft. In Romania, a Russian drone lingered in the country’s airspace for nearly an hour, while in Poland, another drone approached the border, flying over the Ukrainian city of Kovel.

And after two dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace a few days ago, Warsaw decided not to take any risks: it declared an alert, scrambled the air force, and even closed the airport in Lublin.

These incidents clearly indicate that Vladimir Putin’s air war against Europe is becoming increasingly systematic, all this occurring against the backdrop of regular Russian-Belarusian military exercises, which are also causing concern among neighboring countries. It goes without saying that the appearance of Russian drones in NATO airspace has been a real shock for citizens and governments alike. And not only for them.

I myself, although I had warned about the possibility of such a scenario, that night, watching from a shelter in Lviv as the “Shaheds” flew simultaneously over the city and toward the Polish border, could not believe my own eyes. What was happening turned theoretical assumptions into reality: the war, which many said would inevitably remain within Ukraine’s borders, had crossed them. Because this is not just Russia’s war against Ukraine, but Putin’s war against the West — against everyone who supports Ukraine.

Western politicians, however, are trying to pretend that nothing unusual is happening, and Ukraine’s neighbors are responding adequately to Russian provocations. But everyone understands perfectly well: this is an illusion. If the Kremlin continues to attack Europe with cheap drones, whose presence in the skies over Poland or Romania is not “officially” recognized by anyone, NATO will be forced to scramble aircraft and close airports every time. Quite quickly, Central Europe could become a region of chronic instability. At the same time, as before, no one is seeking a direct conflict with Russia. But what can be done when it is ready to attack — even “anonymously”?

Some steps are already being taken. For example, the Polish military has begun learning from Ukrainian instructors how to counter drones. But this is not enough. A logical solution would be joint patrolling of Ukrainian airspace. Kyiv has been advocating this since 2022. At the time, I could understand the Europeans’ arguments for not shooting down Russian planes over Ukraine, so as not to provoke a direct clash with Moscow. But Russian planes have long been absent from Ukrainian skies, and missiles are now launched from Russian territory itself. The only explanation for why Western allies are still hesitant to intercept Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine is fear. And this fear is precisely Putin’s greatest advantage.

In terms of resources, money, and technology, the West is vastly superior to Russia. But fear negates this advantage. Fear allows Putin to carry out one provocation after another, crossing new “red lines.” Although the solution seems simple, joint patrolling of Ukrainian skies in the west and south would relieve Poles and Romanians of the “Shaheed” threat and allow Ukraine to concentrate on defending its central and eastern regions.

But the logic of fear is a poor ally. That is why European capitals will continue requesting more air defense systems for themselves, while avoiding a solution that could truly stop Putin. And once again, leadership from the United States is indispensable. Only through a joint plan between America and Europe can fear be diminished.

The same applies to sanctions. The onset of Russia’s drone war against Europe should have prompted even tougher sanctions. President Donald Trump has called on Europeans to impose measures on China, India, and other sponsors of the Kremlin’s economy, stating that the United States is ready to participate. This makes sense: Moscow’s energy revenues can only be cut off collectively. Otherwise, sanctions risk becoming yet another demonstration of helplessness in the face of the Moscow-Beijing alliance. Meanwhile, as Washington and European capitals weigh the costs of new sanctions, Putin continues to advance, step by step.

In this game of fear and excuses, there is only one winner so far — and he sits in the Kremlin. If the West does not change its approach, the “Shaheds” will continue to fly not only over Kovel and Lviv, but also over Warsaw and Bucharest. And perhaps even further, to places where just yesterday it seemed impossible.

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