Government rotation: what surprises await the Ukrainian economy

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Change of government? What do we have in terms of change of government and impact on the economy? First of all, it should be noted that no one expects significant changes, and therefore a significant impact on the economy.

Once upon a time, before the appointment of a new government, when everyone thought it would be Jaresko or Groysman, the figure of the prime minister determined a lot. It outlined the path the country would take. Now there is no such dilemma. All paths, all road maps, are drawn in other buildings. Which is only partially explained by the war.

Thus, the main flaw of the new government, the main drawback, repeats the situation with the previous government. Namely, the low level of subjectivity. Can we suddenly expect a surprise here and suddenly it turns out that the new government, the new prime minister, are more independent in making decisions? Then it will be a pleasant surprise. A pleasant surprise. Which one can hope for, but hardly anyone will dare to bet money on it.

What else? We can say that there have been no personal changes for the worse. None. There were fears that the Minister of Education might be fired, where the values of Shkarlet-Tabachnyk would return, but this did not happen.

The Prime Minister herself has a good reputation with business. And she has assembled a very good team in her ministry. Which was clearly evident during the negotiations with the Americans on the minerals agreement. What Trump sent and what was signed as a result are as different as heaven and earth. And this is the merit of the negotiating team.

Actually, we see that they just got promoted, becoming ministers. Sobolev and Kachka.

Oleksiy Sobolev is probably the strongest Minister of Economy, at least in terms of understanding how the economy works, in the entire history of Ukraine. Anyone who has attended his lectures at least once will not let him lie. Plus, he has a very positive credit history, namely the success of Prozzoro sale and small privatization, where he was the project leader. And where his values were manifested. If from someone you can expect breakthroughs in the same deregulation (not to be confused with tax cuts), then it is from him

Taras Kachka headed the European integration. Considering that the lion’s share of our European integration process will be negotiations on the issue of agrarian relations with the Europeans, this is a very logical appointment. No one understands these issues better than the seemingly eternal person responsible for foreign trade.

On the plus side, paradoxically, is the appointment of Shmyhal as Minister of Defense. Although it looks strange when the current Prime Minister is demoted in the next government. But this is to the painful issue of subjectivity. The main problem of the Ministry of Defense under Umerov was administrative chaos. And what Shmyhal is strong in is painstaking systematic bureaucratic work.

Of the minuses, it is the next mergers and splits of ministries, which always creates technical problems. And it seems like it would be enough to prove its stupidity. But no. Here we are more likely to have imitation again and over time we will return back, reviving both the agricultural and environmental ministries.

But with the help of this tool, they managed to lose the Ministry of Unity along the way. We have a lot of reasons to lose it. About 120 million reasons, according to the court decision. 120 million plus one – namely, the complete uselessness of such a ministry. It would be better to have already created a Ministry of Migration. But it is unpopular…

You might say, how strange is the appointment of Galushchenko as Minister of Justice? Yes, it is strange. But considering that he was already a minister, there has been practically no new negativity in the government. And now we just have to watch to see if the situation in Energoatom, for example, will change. Maybe a supervisory board will finally appear there. Especially since the public had very similar questions about the previous Minister of Justice as they did about the Minister of Energy. So everything is harmonious here.

By the way, the fact that Chernyshov and Galushchenko lost their positions shows that some kind of feedback loop still exists. Not at the level of Sweden, of course. That some kind of feedback loop still exists is very important against the backdrop of very frightening events around BEB and the political persecution of Shabunin, where the SBI is opening up uncharted territory in the process of reaching the bottom and digging further.

The Minister of Finance remained in place. And here everyone who is responsible for raising funds from our Western partners breathed a sigh of relief. And in addition, those who are responsible for spending these funds.

Thus, the appointment of the government does not bring negative surprises for the economy. And this is the main thing. The main thing is to have realistic expectations.

As a reminder, on July 16, the Verkhovna Rada supported the resignation of Denys Shmyhal from the post of Prime Minister. The entire Cabinet of Ministers automatically resigns . 261 MPs voted for this decision.

Later, during a meeting of the Servant of the People faction, attended by President Volodymyr Zelensky,candidates for positions in the renewed Cabinet of Ministers were presented.

During a discussion from the parliament’s rostrum on the resignation of Prime Minister Shmyhal, Petro Poroshenko stated that the authorities are questioning the legitimacy of the next Cabinet of Ministers , because the law “On the Legal Regime of Martial Law” prohibits terminating the powers of the government.

He also criticized ministers for the country’s unsatisfactory preparation for war and called on them to report on the results of their activities.

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