Peace Talks and Leaders’ Summit: Is a Deal on the Horizon?

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Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that Ukraine and Russia have reached a preliminary agreement to hold a leaders’ summit. The meeting may include Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and possibly Donald Trump.

The goal of the summit is to consolidate or significantly advance the Russian-Ukrainian agreement to end the war, whether in the form of a freeze or a full settlement of the conflict.

This news comes against the backdrop of Trump’s promises to impose tariffs and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy within less than 50 days, as well as a possible meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in China.

All this creates an informational background saturated with talk of a “small deal” and a quick end to the war. However, amid these talks, Russia continues to shell Ukrainian cities, recently attacking the Dnipro region in particular, which casts doubt on the realism of such statements.

The reality of the so-called “deal” depends on three main factors:

1. Putin’s realistic assessment of the situation. How accurately does Vladimir Putin evaluate the state of the Russian economy and military? As a dictator who has been in power for 25 years with broken feedback mechanisms, he likely perceives a far more optimistic picture than reality warrants. His decision to withdraw from the war will probably come later than necessary to preserve his regime and the country. The only factor that could compel him to end the war is a direct threat to his grip on power.

2. The effectiveness of US negotiations with China and India. The 50-day deadline announced by Trump is aimed not so much at Russia itself as at its key economic partners.

• India. As the fastest-growing oil market, India is of strategic interest to both the US and the Middle East. Simultaneously, India seeks closer ties with the US to counterbalance its rival China. India also does not want Russia to become completely dependent on China, since this would endanger its security.

• China. Uses Russia as a strategic tool to weaken the West, but does not seek direct military confrontation. Beijing continues to hope for the peaceful reunification with Taiwan and is exploring diplomatic solutions.

3. Donald Trump’s resolve. Will Trump be able to transform his threats into concrete actions? Most likely, yes. This will leave Putin with a choice: either make concessions, which would signify weakness and raise questions about the justification for the war given the enormous losses, or seek a compromise.

It is unlikely that any substantive agreement will be reached in August. Putin still believes his offensive can succeed, despite the Russian military’s failure to achieve strategic breakthroughs during the summer campaign. He also assumes that the Russian economy will endure and that Ukraine will capitulate first.

The decisive factor that could push Putin to enter genuine negotiations could be either a serious defeat on the front or a severe economic crisis in Russia, especially if the US intensifies pressure and India and China refrain from interference.

If the world’s three largest economies (the United States, China, and India) impose coercive measures on Russia, Putin will have a “window of opportunity” to begin negotiations, as there will be a real threat to his regime. However, at present, his level of concern is not sufficient for this.

Therefore, while some hopes can be nurtured, realistic plans for substantive negotiations and an end to the conflict should be postponed until at least the end of 2025. This is the earliest time when meaningful talks can take place.

For now, the safest strategy is to continue living in wartime mode and closely monitor global diplomacy between the US, India, and China, without expecting a quick peace. It would still come as a surprise.

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