Populism Over Policy: Is Ukraine Trading Heat for Headlines This Winter?

Source: Author’s Facebook page

As winter approaches, the question is no longer rhetorical: will we all freeze? Moscow is doing everything possible to make it happen — and yet, instead of taking steps to prevent this scenario, Ukraine’s leadership seems to be moving dangerously closer to it.

In return…

Victory! Gas prices are frozen. The happiness of populism is sweeping across the country.

But what actually happened? Russia has been attacking Ukraine’s gas infrastructure all year — and has intensified those strikes in recent weeks. Such assaults could not have gone without consequences.

As a result, domestic gas production will fall short. And not by a small margin. Nor will the reserves in storage be enough to offset the deficit. At this point, one might offer a “sincere thank-you” to Mr. Chernyshov and his team, who proudly reported record financial results for Naftogaz last year — achieved, ironically, by selling gas that couldn’t be sold.

This year’s aggressive injection campaign — and the active courting of partners’ funds to support it — has restored a certain level of reserves, but nothing more.

So, the Russians have achieved their goal: Ukraine will face a gas shortage. Does it sound familiar? Indeed, it’s reminiscent of 2022, when Russian strikes targeted fuel depots. Queues, shortages — all of it. And back then, too, the government entered the crisis with fixed fuel prices. The shortage lasted until that disastrous policy was finally scrapped.

So, we already have experience of what not to do. Yet we stubbornly repeat the same mistakes.

How was the fuel crisis of 2022 resolved? Through the market. Prices were liberalized, and those eager to earn profits brought sufficient fuel into the country. Yes, prices rose — but people still bought gasoline despite the supposed “impoverishment.” The economy kept moving.

So here’s the question: why should gas be any different? If the laws of the market apply everywhere, perhaps it’s worth finally listening to them — and directing state funds toward targeted subsidies for those who truly can’t pay, rather than making gas artificially cheap for everyone.

Once again, we’ll see a huge gap between gas prices for households and for industry. Let’s recall the Firtash affair, when gas was flowing not exactly where it was supposed to. Such distortions never encourage efficient consumption — on the contrary, they deepen the deficit.

In short, this decision will inevitably lead to:
– a growing deficit,
– increased corruption risks,
– and higher costs for Ukrainian taxpayers, who will foot the bill one way or another.

(Unless, of course, we suddenly receive a $1–2 billion grant from Norway — but one can always dream.)

And once again, these damn “popular” decisions instead of the right ones. Once again, the ghost of elections looms over everything, as if it were a stairway to heaven we’re endlessly crawling toward.

If it were only about the costs, one might shrug and say, “Europe will pay for everything.” Whether it actually will — that’s another question. But for now, the phrase sounds convenient enough. So we wave it off, close our eyes, and avoid looking too closely at Naftogaz’s balance sheet — the one where the company buys at a high price and sells at a low one. Somehow, we assume, it will sort itself out later.

But a gas shortage in winter, on top of already fragile — at least regional — electricity supplies, is hardly a pleasant scenario. And populism, instead of market mechanisms, only deepens that shortage.

Just ask the Russians — we all enjoy those videos of endless gas-station queues, don’t we?

So, what do we really want? To be cold with cheap gas, or warm with gas that actually exists?

And why, for heaven’s sake, are we stepping on the same rake again?

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