Powerless… but Oh, So Furious!

Source: Author’s Facebook page

They are furious — fuming with powerlessness. They have already realized that defeating Ukraine is impossible, as their resources are insufficient. Yet they do not know how to extricate themselves from this situation without appearing defeated.

Just a few facts.

On the eve of Ukraine’s Independence Day, seaborne Russian oil exports dropped sharply — by about 320,000 barrels per day. This decline is primarily due to EU-imposed sanctions targeting the Russian shadow fleet. The Kremlin is fully aware that the current US sanctions are largely a response to pressure from Britain, Germany, and France, and are tied directly to the situation in Ukraine.

Another factor is the strike by Ukrainian drones on the terminal in Ust-Luga. It is difficult to ship oil when infrastructure is damaged and operations are disrupted.

A further complication is the reduction of Russian oil purchases by India, which fell by more than 500,000 barrels per day. This is again largely due to European energy sanctions, combined with US diplomatic pressure on India. Reports indicate that China has agreed to buy part of the oil volume that India declined, but at a significant discount. Not all of it, only a portion, while negotiations continue, as China seeks even greater price reductions. The question remains: where will Moscow turn next?

The price of Russian oil has stabilized at $54–55 per barrel. To understand the dynamics, Russia previously tried to push prices below $40, which would have made production unprofitable and forced US oil operations to halt, leading to a long-term spike in prices. It is easier to shut down production than to restart it. However, Trump’s strike in Iran changed the market, keeping prices higher than the Kremlin wanted, but lower than Moscow hoped. The losses are real, but less severe than they aimed for — and they are persistent over time.

In Russia, the share of loss-making coal companies has risen to 66%, up from 51.4% a year ago, primarily due to European sanctions. This also highlights the burden of the occupied territories: their coal is unwanted even within Russia.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones continue to target Russian oil refineries. On the night in question, the Afipsk and Novokuybyshev refineries were attacked again. They had been hit previously, but drone strikes remain limited — and more attacks are expected.

This is why they are angry. This is why they are hitting us. They target residential areas and civilian buildings. Terrorists always act this way — taking hostages and using intimidation to achieve their goals.

Recall, on the night of August 28, Kyiv was subjected to one of the largest attacks in recent months. Russian troops simultaneously used strike drones, ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as hypersonic “Daggers”, which led to large-scale destruction in several areas of the city. There are many dead, many injured. According to the Air Force, the Russians launched 629 air attack vehicles. Air defense neutralized 589 targets.

Meanwhile, on the night of August 27-28, a series of drone attacks on strategically important fuel infrastructure facilities occurred in Russia. Two large oil refineries were hit – Afipsk in the Krasnodar Territory and Novokuybyshev in the Samara Region.

In addition, on the night of August 24, units of the Main Intelligence Directorate, together with the Unmanned Systems Forces and other components of the Defense Forces , inflicted fire damage on an important Russian fuel and energy infrastructure facility in the Samara region.

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