“Venezuelan Matrix”: How the US Plans to Change Power in Iran

The path to democratization in Iran lies not through external opposition, but through the search for moderate groups of influence within the power vertical itself. Therefore, only a well-thought-out governance model will help avoid the chaos of civil war after the fall of the dictatorship.

On the air of “Pryamoy”, political scientist Volodymyr Tsybulko shared an analysis of a possible change in the political landscape in Iran, drawing parallels with the experience of Venezuela.

“If in Venezuela they found a second-tier influence group that is ready to change the country and its policy to one that is more favorable to the US, then it is obvious that such a mechanism will be used in Iran. Therefore, I do not believe that the fighting will be long-lasting,” explains Tsybulko.

He noted that despite the death of the Ayatollah’s family and the rapid appointments of new officials, the regime remains vulnerable. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps currently has more real power and assets than the regular army, so it is there that we will have to look for compromise figures. Marco Rubio, who influences the situation from the outside, can play an important role in this process, the political scientist added.

Tsybulko also mentioned the heir to the Iranian throne, who is trying to establish a dialogue with the Kurds, Baloch, and Azerbaijanis to create a new state structure, but the main US demand remains the complete abandonment of nuclear materials.

The experience of neighboring Iraq suggests that only a well-thought-out governance model will help avoid the chaos of civil war after the fall of the dictatorship, political scientist Volodymyr Tsybulko summarized.

As a reminder, global oil prices rose sharply on March 2 amid the escalating conflict over Iran and risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The cost of the benchmark Brent crude reached its highest level since January 2025, showing the largest increase in 4 years.

Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, a key route for oil supplies from the Middle East. According to journalists, a number of major companies have suspended the transportation of crude oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world’s oil consumption.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced the killing of 48 Iranian leaders in US and Israeli strikes. He also reported the destruction of 9 Iranian warships and a strike on the Iranian Navy headquarters.

Instead, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard reported the defeat of the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Persian Gulf. In response, the US reported that the aircraft carrier was not damaged and continues to carry out its mission.