Who will form the new government after the war: favorites and possible scenarios

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Recently, rumors about possible preparations for elections have been spreading more and more actively. Just yesterday, journalists from abroad called me asking me to comment on this topic. My position remains unchanged: there will be no elections in Ukraine until martial law is lifted.

And it, let me remind you, may last longer than even a potential truce. All these rumors are more like the traditional political “divorce” that occurs in Ukraine every six months. However, if the election topic becomes relevant again, here is my analytical assessment and answers to key questions.

Which elections will be held first?

First of all, it is worth determining which elections can be held first: presidential, parliamentary, or local. The scenario of holding all three campaigns simultaneously seems unlikely – this is an extremely difficult task even in peacetime. And in the post-war period – even more so.

Most likely, local and parliamentary elections will be held first, and then presidential elections. Such a sequence would be interesting for the current government, since it would allow it to introduce its own factions into the parliament and local bodies. Although the reverse order cannot be completely ruled out. The key role will be played by the political configuration and the results of the war (for example, the “22 year” line and the “91 year borders” can radically change the balance of perception or non-perception of the current government) and the main intrigue on the surname “Zaluzhny”.

Will Zaluzhny participate?

The main intrigue of the upcoming race is whether former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny will enter big politics.

His rating remains high, as does his level of trust. In my opinion, he has already managed to turn into a political myth, maybe even a part of the Ukrainian epic. And it will be difficult for all the conventional “politicians” who are now in power or in opposition to compete with the “political myth”. Ukrainians like elections, but in general they do not like “politicians”. It’s a paradox, but it exists.

His potential return from London to public politics could radically change the balance of power – both in the presidential and parliamentary races. But how – it will all depend on many factors and, first of all, on the outcome of the war. However, it is unlikely that Zaluzhny will publicly voice his political position before the end of the war. Although with the naked eye one can see that some work is still being done to maintain his recognition.

Who can make it to the next parliament?

It is extremely difficult to assess party ratings in the current conditions. The sociology of wartime is often distorted: many topics are taboo, some voters are abroad, public sentiment is unstable. Moreover, the parameters of peace (what kind of peace will there be, on what terms, with what losses) will have a direct impact on electoral behavior. But even so, it is already possible to outline a conditional electoral trio that has a high chance of entering parliament:

• President’s Party / “Zelensky’s Party”
It is obvious that the government retains resources, institutional influence, and its electoral niche. The political force will probably undergo rebranding – it will not be about the “Servant of the People”, but about the conditional “Zelenskyi party”, where “new faces” will be recruited without toxic ones. Due to its influence over the executive branch and information resources, this force will definitely be among the favorites of the next elections. But the future of this political force directly depends on the results of the war, Zelenskyi’s personal rating, and the order of elections.

• Poroshenko’s “European Solidarity”
The party has a stable electorate, actively criticizes the actions of the authorities. As of today, the political force is confidently overcoming the entry barrier. It has a clear positioning, a structured party and media structure, and an active faction.

• Yulia Tymoshenko’s Party (“Batkivshchyna”)
Yulia Tymoshenko is active in her traditional niches – social, on such sensitive topics as: rehabilitation of military personnel, pension issues, protection of personal data, investigation of abuses in the energy sector, etc. For example, now “Batkivshchyna” is actively mobilizing its supporters around bills 13704 and 13705, which concern the issue of treatment and prosthetics for wounded military personnel, criticizing the government’s project, which lacks the principle of full financing of military rehabilitation programs from the state budget.

The party has a structure, a stable rating, a team, and a clear political position. Fortunately, the government gives many reasons to actively criticize itself. Plus, demography will work for Tymoshenko – the proportion of people among older voters has increased.

What role will the military play?

I believe that military service should become an important qualification for access to politics, especially for men. Ukraine needs a model close to the Israeli one: if you want to make decisions in defense, security, or state policy, you have to go through the path of defending the country yourself or through military service. And this applies not only to the legislative, but also, first of all, to the executive branch at all levels.

I expect that there will be many representatives of the army in the next parliament: some of the military will influence decision-making through parliament, some as members of the government.

The topics of a strong army, security, and the restoration of destroyed infrastructure are likely to become the main ones in the election programs of political forces, since this will be the foundation of building a state, where the army, special services, and its own military-industrial complex will be the backbone of the state’s existence. There is security – there is everything else. Including the economy. But it is difficult to say which conditional parties will be present in this niche, since here everything again rests on the Zaluzhny factor.

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