World War III Looms: Is the West Prepared for a Clash with Russia?

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Following reports about a potential ‘hybrid’ attack by Russia on Estonia or other Baltic states, discussions in Ukraine and the West have intensified. Analysts and policymakers are now seriously considering not only the possibility of a conflict between Russia and NATO but also the political collapse of the Alliance if its response proves insufficiently resolute.

But most importantly, we began to realize that the very possibility of such a conflict, which poses a real risk of starting World War III, is linked to the inadequate response by Western countries to events in Ukraine in 2014.

Then, for the first time since World War II, the Russian president went not just to occupy but also to annex part of another state’s territory. But the leading countries of the world—the same signatories of the Budapest Memorandum—tried to pretend that nothing extraordinary had happened in Crimea. If we recall the sanctions imposed against Russia by the administration of President Barack Obama and the European Union, it is easy to understand why the Kremlin did not heed the calls from Washington not to invade the mainland and instead started a war in the Donbas.

Surprisingly, practically no one wanted to consider this war a war and an occupation. They started talking about Donbas “separatism,” trying not to notice the presence of Russian troops and special services in the region. And this, even though, before the Russian invasion, neither in Crimea nor in Donbas were there political forces or at least reputable public organizations that would advocate for the independence of the regions or their accession to Russia.

And indeed, where could such organizations come from, when until 2014 the country’s president, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the prime minister, and almost all ministers were… natives of the Donetsk region, and the parliamentary faction of the ruling Party of Regions was headed by a native of Luhansk? What kind of separatism could there be then?

However, this myth allowed both the West and Ukrainians to live in a fictional reality, where the conflict could supposedly be resolved simply by negotiating with imaginary separatists.” It got to the point that not only Western diplomats talked about seeking dialogue with representatives of the “separatist” (and in fact occupation) administrations, but also ordinary people talked about the “separatists.” This is the answer to the famous Russian question: “What have you been doing for eight years?” Like, they lied to themselves that your occupation did not exist and contributed to your lies and preparations for a big war during which there was no need to play “separatists,” so the Luhansk and Donetsk regions were banally annexed—like Crimea!

And now the question arises: why can’t Putin use this same mechanism in Estonian Narva? After all, if Western capitals are faced with a dilemma – whether to believe in the “separatism” of the Russian population of Narva or to go to war with Russia – what will they choose in Washington or Brussels? We seem to know the answer. We know it from the reaction to the events in Ukraine.

So, let’s record it today so that no one can say tomorrow that they were not warned. There are no separatist sentiments in the Ida-Virumaa region, to which the border town of Narva belongs, just as there were none in Crimea and Donbas. If these sentiments begin to manifest themselves, it will mean that a creeping Russian occupation has begun.

If this creeping occupation is perceived as a complex regional and national conflict, if local collaborators—who will definitely appear, because this is an indispensable attribute of the occupation—are perceived as separatists, not collaborators, this will not calm down but only inspire Putin. Later, a big war will begin in Europe.

A war from which the United States will no longer be able to evade, no matter what the White House thinks today. Here is an approximate forecast of the Third World War—with an Estonian… yes, no, with a Ukrainian accent.

And all because political and security conclusions must be made promptly, my friends. And really, what have we all been doing for eight years?

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